Cogent Communications Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| CCOI Stock | USD 23.21 0.23 0.98% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Cogent Communications Group on the next trading day is expected to be 23.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 62.31. Cogent Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Cogent Communications' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 15th of January 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of Cogent Communications' share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Cogent Communications hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Cogent Communications Group from the perspective of Cogent Communications response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Cogent Communications Group on the next trading day is expected to be 23.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 62.31. Cogent Communications after-hype prediction price | USD 23.66 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cogent Communications to cross-verify your projections. Cogent Communications Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Cogent price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Cogent using various technical indicators. When you analyze Cogent charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Cogent Communications Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 16th of January 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Cogent Communications Group on the next trading day is expected to be 23.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.04, mean absolute percentage error of 4.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 62.31.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Cogent Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Cogent Communications' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Cogent Communications Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Cogent Communications | Cogent Communications Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Cogent Communications Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Cogent Communications' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Cogent Communications' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 16.89 and 29.53, respectively. We have considered Cogent Communications' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Cogent Communications stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Cogent Communications stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.6679 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.3515 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.0385 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0446 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 62.31 |
Predictive Modules for Cogent Communications
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cogent Communications. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Cogent Communications
For every potential investor in Cogent, whether a beginner or expert, Cogent Communications' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Cogent Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Cogent. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Cogent Communications' price trends.View Cogent Communications Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Cogent Communications Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Cogent Communications' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Cogent Communications' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Cogent Communications Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Cogent Communications stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Cogent Communications shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Cogent Communications stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Cogent Communications Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 26195.5 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.24) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 23.32 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 23.28 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.22) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.23) |
Cogent Communications Risk Indicators
The analysis of Cogent Communications' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Cogent Communications' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cogent stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.99 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.32 | |||
| Variance | 39.96 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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When determining whether Cogent Communications offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Cogent Communications' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Cogent Communications Group Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Cogent Communications Group Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cogent Communications to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Stock Screener module to find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook..
Is Diversified Telecommunication Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Cogent Communications. If investors know Cogent will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Cogent Communications listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Cogent Communications is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Cogent that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Cogent Communications' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Cogent Communications' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Cogent Communications' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Cogent Communications' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Cogent Communications' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Cogent Communications is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Cogent Communications' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.