The Chefs Warehouse Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 38.26

CHEF Stock  USD 47.14  2.14  4.76%   
Chefs Warehouse's future price is the expected price of Chefs Warehouse instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of The Chefs Warehouse performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Chefs Warehouse Backtesting, Chefs Warehouse Valuation, Chefs Warehouse Correlation, Chefs Warehouse Hype Analysis, Chefs Warehouse Volatility, Chefs Warehouse History as well as Chefs Warehouse Performance.
  
Please specify Chefs Warehouse's target price for which you would like Chefs Warehouse odds to be computed.

Chefs Warehouse Target Price Odds to finish below 38.26

The tendency of Chefs Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 38.26  or more in 90 days
 47.14 90 days 38.26 
nearly 4.59
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Chefs Warehouse to drop to $ 38.26  or more in 90 days from now is nearly 4.59 (This The Chefs Warehouse probability density function shows the probability of Chefs Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Chefs Warehouse price to stay between $ 38.26  and its current price of $47.14 at the end of the 90-day period is over 95.26 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Chefs Warehouse has a beta of 0.97 suggesting The Chefs Warehouse market returns are reactive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Chefs Warehouse is expected to follow. Additionally The Chefs Warehouse has an alpha of 0.1218, implying that it can generate a 0.12 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Chefs Warehouse Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Chefs Warehouse

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Chefs Warehouse. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Chefs Warehouse's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
43.0544.9846.91
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
41.8943.8245.75
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
43.5245.4547.37
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
42.3043.8845.45
Details

Chefs Warehouse Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Chefs Warehouse is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Chefs Warehouse's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold The Chefs Warehouse, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Chefs Warehouse within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.12
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.97
σ
Overall volatility
1.84
Ir
Information ratio 0.06

Chefs Warehouse Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Chefs Warehouse for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Chefs Warehouse can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Over 92.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies

Chefs Warehouse Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Chefs Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Chefs Warehouse's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Chefs Warehouse's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding45.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments49.9 M

Chefs Warehouse Technical Analysis

Chefs Warehouse's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Chefs Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of The Chefs Warehouse. In general, you should focus on analyzing Chefs Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Chefs Warehouse Predictive Forecast Models

Chefs Warehouse's time-series forecasting models is one of many Chefs Warehouse's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Chefs Warehouse's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Chefs Warehouse

Checking the ongoing alerts about Chefs Warehouse for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Chefs Warehouse help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Over 92.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
When determining whether Chefs Warehouse is a strong investment it is important to analyze Chefs Warehouse's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Chefs Warehouse's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Chefs Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Is Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Chefs Warehouse. If investors know Chefs will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Chefs Warehouse listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Chefs Warehouse is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Chefs that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Chefs Warehouse's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Chefs Warehouse's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Chefs Warehouse's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Chefs Warehouse's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Chefs Warehouse's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Chefs Warehouse is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Chefs Warehouse's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.