China Southern Airlines Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Under 0.46
| CHKIF Stock | USD 0.46 0.02 4.55% |
China |
China Southern Target Price Odds to finish below 0.46
The tendency of China Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move below current price in 90 days |
| 0.46 | 90 days | 0.46 | more than 94.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of China Southern to move below current price in 90 days from now is more than 94.0 (This China Southern Airlines probability density function shows the probability of China Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon China Southern has a beta of 0.41 suggesting as returns on the market go up, China Southern average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding China Southern Airlines will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally China Southern Airlines has an alpha of 0.6122, implying that it can generate a 0.61 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). China Southern Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for China Southern
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as China Southern Airlines. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.China Southern Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. China Southern is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the China Southern's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold China Southern Airlines, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of China Southern within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.61 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.41 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.05 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.09 |
China Southern Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of China Southern for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for China Southern Airlines can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| China Southern is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| China Southern has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| China Southern appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| China Southern Airlines has accumulated 38.35 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 2.88, implying the company greatly relies on financing operations through barrowing. China Southern Airlines has a current ratio of 0.29, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist China Southern until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, China Southern's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like China Southern Airlines sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for China to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about China Southern's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the revenue of 101.64 B. Net Loss for the year was (12.1 B) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (2.62 B). | |
| About 63.0% of China Southern shares are held by company insiders |
China Southern Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of China Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential China Southern's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. China Southern's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 16.9 B |
China Southern Technical Analysis
China Southern's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. China Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of China Southern Airlines. In general, you should focus on analyzing China Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
China Southern Predictive Forecast Models
China Southern's time-series forecasting models is one of many China Southern's pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary China Southern's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about China Southern Airlines
Checking the ongoing alerts about China Southern for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for China Southern Airlines help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| China Southern is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| China Southern has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| China Southern appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| China Southern Airlines has accumulated 38.35 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 2.88, implying the company greatly relies on financing operations through barrowing. China Southern Airlines has a current ratio of 0.29, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist China Southern until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, China Southern's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like China Southern Airlines sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for China to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about China Southern's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the revenue of 101.64 B. Net Loss for the year was (12.1 B) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (2.62 B). | |
| About 63.0% of China Southern shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in China Pink Sheet
China Southern financial ratios help investors to determine whether China Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in China with respect to the benefits of owning China Southern security.