Celestica Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 124.98
| CLS Stock | CAD 116.70 5.28 4.33% |
Celestica |
Celestica Target Price Odds to finish below 124.98
The tendency of Celestica Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under C$ 124.98 after 90 days |
| 116.70 | 90 days | 124.98 | roughly 96.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Celestica to stay under C$ 124.98 after 90 days from now is roughly 96.0 (This Celestica probability density function shows the probability of Celestica Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Celestica price to stay between its current price of C$ 116.70 and C$ 124.98 at the end of the 90-day period is nearly 4.22 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Celestica has a beta of 0.43 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Celestica average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Celestica will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Celestica has an alpha of 0.8123, implying that it can generate a 0.81 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Celestica Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Celestica
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Celestica. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Celestica Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Celestica is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Celestica's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Celestica, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Celestica within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.81 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.43 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 22.20 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.20 |
Celestica Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Celestica for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Celestica can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Celestica appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Celestica is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Over 80.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Celestica Inc Trading 2.18 percent Higher on Nov 19 - GuruFocus.com |
Celestica Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Celestica Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Celestica's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Celestica's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 120.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 372.6 M |
Celestica Technical Analysis
Celestica's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Celestica Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Celestica. In general, you should focus on analyzing Celestica Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Celestica Predictive Forecast Models
Celestica's time-series forecasting models is one of many Celestica's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Celestica's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Celestica
Checking the ongoing alerts about Celestica for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Celestica help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Celestica appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Celestica is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Over 80.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Celestica Inc Trading 2.18 percent Higher on Nov 19 - GuruFocus.com |
Check out Celestica Backtesting, Celestica Valuation, Celestica Correlation, Celestica Hype Analysis, Celestica Volatility, Celestica History as well as Celestica Performance. To learn how to invest in Celestica Stock, please use our How to Invest in Celestica guide.You can also try the Fundamentals Comparison module to compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities.