Cmuv Bancorp Stock Probability of Future OTC Stock Price Finishing Over 20.48
| CMUV Stock | USD 20.05 0.95 4.52% |
CMUV |
CMUV Bancorp Target Price Odds to finish over 20.48
The tendency of CMUV OTC Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 20.48 or more in 90 days |
| 20.05 | 90 days | 20.48 | roughly 2.14 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of CMUV Bancorp to move over $ 20.48 or more in 90 days from now is roughly 2.14 (This CMUV Bancorp probability density function shows the probability of CMUV OTC Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of CMUV Bancorp price to stay between its current price of $ 20.05 and $ 20.48 at the end of the 90-day period is about 5.07 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days CMUV Bancorp has a beta of -0.0233 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding CMUV Bancorp are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, CMUV Bancorp is likely to outperform the market. Additionally CMUV Bancorp has an alpha of 0.1781, implying that it can generate a 0.18 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). CMUV Bancorp Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for CMUV Bancorp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CMUV Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the otc stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the otc stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of CMUV Bancorp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
CMUV Bancorp Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. CMUV Bancorp is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the CMUV Bancorp's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold CMUV Bancorp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of CMUV Bancorp within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.18 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.02 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.76 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.04 |
CMUV Bancorp Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of CMUV OTC Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential CMUV Bancorp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. CMUV Bancorp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.8 M |
CMUV Bancorp Technical Analysis
CMUV Bancorp's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. CMUV OTC Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of CMUV Bancorp. In general, you should focus on analyzing CMUV OTC Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
CMUV Bancorp Predictive Forecast Models
CMUV Bancorp's time-series forecasting models is one of many CMUV Bancorp's otc stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary CMUV Bancorp's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the otc stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards CMUV Bancorp in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, CMUV Bancorp's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from CMUV Bancorp options trading.
Additional Tools for CMUV OTC Stock Analysis
When running CMUV Bancorp's price analysis, check to measure CMUV Bancorp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy CMUV Bancorp is operating at the current time. Most of CMUV Bancorp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of CMUV Bancorp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move CMUV Bancorp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of CMUV Bancorp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.