Cogna Educao (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 1.37
| COGN3 Stock | BRL 1.29 0.10 7.19% |
Cogna |
Cogna Educao Target Price Odds to finish below 1.37
The tendency of Cogna Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under R$ 1.37 after 90 days |
| 1.29 | 90 days | 1.37 | about 43.87 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Cogna Educao to stay under R$ 1.37 after 90 days from now is about 43.87 (This Cogna Educao SA probability density function shows the probability of Cogna Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Cogna Educao SA price to stay between its current price of R$ 1.29 and R$ 1.37 at the end of the 90-day period is about 34.98 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Cogna Educao has a beta of 0.14 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Cogna Educao average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Cogna Educao SA will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Cogna Educao SA has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Cogna Educao Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Cogna Educao
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cogna Educao SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Cogna Educao Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Cogna Educao is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Cogna Educao's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Cogna Educao SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Cogna Educao within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.1 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.14 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.07 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.05 |
Cogna Educao Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Cogna Educao for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Cogna Educao SA can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Cogna Educao SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Cogna Educao SA may become a speculative penny stock | |
| Cogna Educao SA has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Cogna Educao SA has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Cogna Educao SA has accumulated 7.64 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.67, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Cogna Educao SA has a current ratio of 0.85, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Cogna Educao until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Cogna Educao's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Cogna Educao SA sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Cogna to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Cogna Educao's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the revenue of 4.78 B. Net Loss for the year was (489.12 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 2.87 B. |
Cogna Educao Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Cogna Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Cogna Educao's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cogna Educao's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.8 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4 B |
Cogna Educao Technical Analysis
Cogna Educao's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Cogna Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Cogna Educao SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Cogna Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Cogna Educao Predictive Forecast Models
Cogna Educao's time-series forecasting models is one of many Cogna Educao's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Cogna Educao's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Cogna Educao SA
Checking the ongoing alerts about Cogna Educao for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Cogna Educao SA help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Cogna Educao SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Cogna Educao SA may become a speculative penny stock | |
| Cogna Educao SA has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Cogna Educao SA has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Cogna Educao SA has accumulated 7.64 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.67, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Cogna Educao SA has a current ratio of 0.85, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Cogna Educao until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Cogna Educao's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Cogna Educao SA sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Cogna to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Cogna Educao's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the revenue of 4.78 B. Net Loss for the year was (489.12 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 2.87 B. |
Additional Tools for Cogna Stock Analysis
When running Cogna Educao's price analysis, check to measure Cogna Educao's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Cogna Educao is operating at the current time. Most of Cogna Educao's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Cogna Educao's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Cogna Educao's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Cogna Educao to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.