CROBEX10 (Croatia) Odds of Future Index Price Finishing Under 1948.4
| CRBEX10 Index | 2,005 18.94 0.95% |
CROBEX10 Target Price Odds to finish below 1948.4
The tendency of CROBEX10 Index price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 1,948 or more in 90 days |
| 2,005 | 90 days | 1,948 | about 80.71 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of CROBEX10 to drop to 1,948 or more in 90 days from now is about 80.71 (This CROBEX10 probability density function shows the probability of CROBEX10 Index to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of CROBEX10 price to stay between 1,948 and its current price of 2004.78 at the end of the 90-day period is about 15.94 .
CROBEX10 Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for CROBEX10
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CROBEX10. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the index market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the index market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of CROBEX10's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
CROBEX10 Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. CROBEX10 is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the CROBEX10's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold CROBEX10, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of CROBEX10 within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.CROBEX10 Technical Analysis
CROBEX10's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. CROBEX10 Index technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of CROBEX10. In general, you should focus on analyzing CROBEX10 Index price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
CROBEX10 Predictive Forecast Models
CROBEX10's time-series forecasting models is one of many CROBEX10's index analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary CROBEX10's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the index market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards CROBEX10 in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, CROBEX10's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from CROBEX10 options trading.