Capital Southwest Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 23.42
| CSWC Stock | USD 23.56 0.21 0.90% |
Capital |
Capital Southwest Target Price Odds to finish below 23.42
The tendency of Capital Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 23.42 or more in 90 days |
| 23.56 | 90 days | 23.42 | about 15.47 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Capital Southwest to drop to $ 23.42 or more in 90 days from now is about 15.47 (This Capital Southwest probability density function shows the probability of Capital Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Capital Southwest price to stay between $ 23.42 and its current price of $23.56 at the end of the 90-day period is under 4.
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Capital Southwest has a beta of 0.59 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Capital Southwest average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Capital Southwest will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Capital Southwest has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Capital Southwest Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Capital Southwest
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Capital Southwest. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Capital Southwest's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Capital Southwest Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Capital Southwest is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Capital Southwest's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Capital Southwest, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Capital Southwest within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.12 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.59 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.04 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.12 |
Capital Southwest Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Capital Southwest for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Capital Southwest can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Capital Southwest generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Capital Southwest currently holds about 18.77 M in cash with (188.5 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.68. | |
| Capital Southwest has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Airline stocks soar as demand for premium travel booms |
Capital Southwest Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Capital Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Capital Southwest's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Capital Southwest's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 40.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 32.3 M |
Capital Southwest Technical Analysis
Capital Southwest's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Capital Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Capital Southwest. In general, you should focus on analyzing Capital Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Capital Southwest Predictive Forecast Models
Capital Southwest's time-series forecasting models is one of many Capital Southwest's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Capital Southwest's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Capital Southwest
Checking the ongoing alerts about Capital Southwest for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Capital Southwest help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Capital Southwest generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Capital Southwest currently holds about 18.77 M in cash with (188.5 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.68. | |
| Capital Southwest has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Airline stocks soar as demand for premium travel booms |
Check out Capital Southwest Backtesting, Capital Southwest Valuation, Capital Southwest Correlation, Capital Southwest Hype Analysis, Capital Southwest Volatility, Capital Southwest History as well as Capital Southwest Performance. For information on how to trade Capital Stock refer to our How to Trade Capital Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.
Is Asset Management & Custody Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Capital Southwest. If investors know Capital will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Capital Southwest listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.16) | Dividend Share 2.29 | Earnings Share 1.64 | Revenue Per Share 4.371 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.139 |
The market value of Capital Southwest is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Capital that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Capital Southwest's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Capital Southwest's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Capital Southwest's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Capital Southwest's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Capital Southwest's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Capital Southwest is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Capital Southwest's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.