California Water Service Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 41.08
| CWT Stock | USD 51.98 0.38 0.74% |
California |
California Water Target Price Odds to finish below 41.08
The tendency of California Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 41.08 or more in 90 days |
| 51.98 | 90 days | 41.08 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of California Water to drop to $ 41.08 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This California Water Service probability density function shows the probability of California Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of California Water Service price to stay between $ 41.08 and its current price of $51.98 at the end of the 90-day period is about 32.3 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon California Water has a beta of 0.61 suggesting as returns on the market go up, California Water average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding California Water Service will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally California Water Service has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. California Water Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for California Water
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as California Water Service. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of California Water's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
California Water Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. California Water is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the California Water's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold California Water Service, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of California Water within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.11 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.61 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.44 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.13 |
California Water Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of California Water for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for California Water Service can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| California Water generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| California Water has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 88.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 22nd of November 2024 California Water paid $ 0.28 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Insider Sell Michael Luu Sells Shares of California Water Service Group |
California Water Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of California Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential California Water's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. California Water's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 57 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 39.6 M |
California Water Technical Analysis
California Water's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. California Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of California Water Service. In general, you should focus on analyzing California Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
California Water Predictive Forecast Models
California Water's time-series forecasting models is one of many California Water's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary California Water's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about California Water Service
Checking the ongoing alerts about California Water for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for California Water Service help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| California Water generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| California Water has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 88.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 22nd of November 2024 California Water paid $ 0.28 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Insider Sell Michael Luu Sells Shares of California Water Service Group |
Additional Tools for California Stock Analysis
When running California Water's price analysis, check to measure California Water's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy California Water is operating at the current time. Most of California Water's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of California Water's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move California Water's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of California Water to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.