California Water Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| CWT Stock | USD 44.71 0.24 0.54% |
California Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of California Water's share price is at 52 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling California Water, making its price go up or down. Momentum 52
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.36 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.3167 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.5275 | Wall Street Target Price 53 |
Using California Water hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of California Water Service from the perspective of California Water response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards California Water using California Water's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards California using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of California Water's stock price.
California Water Short Interest
An investor who is long California Water may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about California Water and may potentially protect profits, hedge California Water with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 46.2381 | Short Percent 0.0256 | Short Ratio 2.66 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.2 M | 50 Day MA 44.2666 |
California Relative Strength Index
The Simple Regression forecasted value of California Water Service on the next trading day is expected to be 43.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.84 and the sum of the absolute errors of 51.02.California Water Service Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to California Water's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in California. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding California can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around California Water Service. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of California Water's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about California Water.
California Water Implied Volatility | 0.78 |
California Water's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of California Water Service stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if California Water's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that California Water stock will not fluctuate a lot when California Water's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of California Water Service on the next trading day is expected to be 43.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.84 and the sum of the absolute errors of 51.02. California Water after-hype prediction price | USD 44.47 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current California contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that California Water Service will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0488% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With California Water trading at USD 44.71, that is roughly USD 0.0218 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating California Water's daily price movement you should consider acquiring California Water Service options at the current volatility level of 0.78%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 California Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast California Water's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in California Water's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for California Water stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current California Water's open interest, investors have to compare it to California Water's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of California Water is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in California. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
California Water Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine California price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for California using various technical indicators. When you analyze California charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
California Water Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of California Water Service on the next trading day is expected to be 43.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.84, mean absolute percentage error of 0.94, and the sum of the absolute errors of 51.02.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict California Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that California Water's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
California Water Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest California Water | California Water Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
California Water Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting California Water's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. California Water's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 42.23 and 45.03, respectively. We have considered California Water's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of California Water stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent California Water stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.0493 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.8364 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0188 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 51.0215 |
Predictive Modules for California Water
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as California Water Service. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of California Water's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
California Water After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of California Water at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in California Water or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of California Water, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
California Water Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting California Water's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on California Water's historical news coverage. California Water's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 43.07 and 45.87, respectively. We have considered California Water's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
California Water is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of California Water Service is based on 3 months time horizon.
California Water Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as California Water is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading California Water backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with California Water, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.00 | 1.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
44.71 | 44.47 | 0.00 |
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California Water Hype Timeline
On the 30th of January California Water Service is traded for 44.71. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. California is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.0%. %. The volatility of related hype on California Water is about 430.77%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 44.71. About 92.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.56. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. California Water Service last dividend was issued on the 10th of November 2025. The entity had 2:1 split on the 13th of June 2011. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of California Water to cross-verify your projections.California Water Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to California Water's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict California Water's future price movements. Getting to know how California Water's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how California Water may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AWR | American States Water | 0.11 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 1.53 | (1.87) | 5.99 | |
| CEPU | Central Puerto SA | (0.15) | 9 per month | 1.86 | 0.17 | 7.75 | (4.23) | 44.62 | |
| HTO | H2O America | 0.36 | 9 per month | 1.65 | (0.0001) | 2.40 | (2.76) | 6.26 | |
| RNW | Renew Energy Global | (0.05) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 2.78 | (3.95) | 29.93 | |
| CPK | Chesapeake Utilities | (2.60) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 1.99 | (2.41) | 5.00 | |
| EE | Excelerate Energy | 0.45 | 11 per month | 1.63 | 0.22 | 3.54 | (2.93) | 10.67 | |
| MGEE | MGE Energy | (1.45) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 1.41 | (1.90) | 4.52 | |
| NWN | Northwest Natural Gas | (0.02) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 1.55 | (1.98) | 5.12 | |
| AVA | Avista | (0.14) | 12 per month | 1.02 | 0.02 | 1.71 | (1.74) | 5.72 | |
| KEN | Kenon Holdings | 0.24 | 8 per month | 1.56 | 0.27 | 3.73 | (2.46) | 10.72 |
Other Forecasting Options for California Water
For every potential investor in California, whether a beginner or expert, California Water's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. California Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in California. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying California Water's price trends.California Water Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with California Water stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of California Water could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing California Water by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
California Water Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how California Water stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading California Water shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying California Water stock market strength indicators, traders can identify California Water Service entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
California Water Risk Indicators
The analysis of California Water's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in California Water's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting california stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.15 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.57 | |||
| Variance | 2.45 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for California Water
The number of cover stories for California Water depends on current market conditions and California Water's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that California Water is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about California Water's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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California Water Short Properties
California Water's future price predictability will typically decrease when California Water's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of California Water Service often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential California Water's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. California Water's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 58.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 50.1 M |
Additional Tools for California Stock Analysis
When running California Water's price analysis, check to measure California Water's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy California Water is operating at the current time. Most of California Water's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of California Water's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move California Water's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of California Water to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.