Deswell Industries Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 2.43
| DSWL Stock | USD 2.62 0.02 0.77% |
Deswell |
Deswell Industries Target Price Odds to finish over 2.43
The tendency of Deswell Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 2.43 in 90 days |
| 2.62 | 90 days | 2.43 | about 86.86 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Deswell Industries to stay above $ 2.43 in 90 days from now is about 86.86 (This Deswell Industries probability density function shows the probability of Deswell Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Deswell Industries price to stay between $ 2.43 and its current price of $2.62 at the end of the 90-day period is about 71.18 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Deswell Industries has a beta of -0.0385 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Deswell Industries are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Deswell Industries is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Deswell Industries has an alpha of 0.1291, implying that it can generate a 0.13 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Deswell Industries Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Deswell Industries
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Deswell Industries. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Deswell Industries' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Deswell Industries Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Deswell Industries is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Deswell Industries' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Deswell Industries, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Deswell Industries within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.13 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.04 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.09 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0 |
Deswell Industries Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Deswell Industries for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Deswell Industries can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Deswell Industries is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Deswell Industries has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 71.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from investing.com: Deswell Industries confirms board members and accountants |
Deswell Industries Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Deswell Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Deswell Industries' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Deswell Industries' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 16 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 57.9 M |
Deswell Industries Technical Analysis
Deswell Industries' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Deswell Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Deswell Industries. In general, you should focus on analyzing Deswell Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Deswell Industries Predictive Forecast Models
Deswell Industries' time-series forecasting models is one of many Deswell Industries' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Deswell Industries' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Deswell Industries
Checking the ongoing alerts about Deswell Industries for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Deswell Industries help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Deswell Industries is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Deswell Industries has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 71.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from investing.com: Deswell Industries confirms board members and accountants |
Check out Deswell Industries Backtesting, Deswell Industries Valuation, Deswell Industries Correlation, Deswell Industries Hype Analysis, Deswell Industries Volatility, Deswell Industries History as well as Deswell Industries Performance. For more information on how to buy Deswell Stock please use our How to buy in Deswell Stock guide.You can also try the Insider Screener module to find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance.
Is Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Deswell Industries. If investors know Deswell will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Deswell Industries listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.592 | Earnings Share 0.65 | Revenue Per Share 4.353 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.04) | Return On Assets 0.0219 |
The market value of Deswell Industries is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Deswell that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Deswell Industries' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Deswell Industries' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Deswell Industries' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Deswell Industries' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Deswell Industries' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Deswell Industries is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Deswell Industries' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.