Devon Energy Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 33.68
| DVN Stock | USD 39.45 0.75 1.94% |
Devon |
Devon Energy Target Price Odds to finish below 33.68
The tendency of Devon Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 33.68 or more in 90 days |
| 39.45 | 90 days | 33.68 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Devon Energy to drop to $ 33.68 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Devon Energy probability density function shows the probability of Devon Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Devon Energy price to stay between $ 33.68 and its current price of $39.45 at the end of the 90-day period is about 28.47 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Devon Energy has a beta of 0.74 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Devon Energy average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Devon Energy will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Devon Energy has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Devon Energy Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Devon Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Devon Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Devon Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Devon Energy Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Devon Energy is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Devon Energy's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Devon Energy, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Devon Energy within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.22 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.74 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.83 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.15 |
Devon Energy Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Devon Energy for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Devon Energy can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Devon Energy generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Devon Energy is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Devon Energy has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 74.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 30th of September 2024 Devon Energy paid $ 0.22 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: 1 Magnificent Oil Stock Down Nearly 30 percent to Buy and Hold Forever |
Devon Energy Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Devon Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Devon Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Devon Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 642 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 875 M |
Devon Energy Technical Analysis
Devon Energy's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Devon Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Devon Energy. In general, you should focus on analyzing Devon Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Devon Energy Predictive Forecast Models
Devon Energy's time-series forecasting models is one of many Devon Energy's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Devon Energy's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Devon Energy
Checking the ongoing alerts about Devon Energy for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Devon Energy help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Devon Energy generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Devon Energy is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Devon Energy has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 74.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 30th of September 2024 Devon Energy paid $ 0.22 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: 1 Magnificent Oil Stock Down Nearly 30 percent to Buy and Hold Forever |
Check out Devon Energy Backtesting, Devon Energy Valuation, Devon Energy Correlation, Devon Energy Hype Analysis, Devon Energy Volatility, Devon Energy History as well as Devon Energy Performance. To learn how to invest in Devon Stock, please use our How to Invest in Devon Energy guide.You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.
Is Oil & Gas Exploration & Production space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Devon Energy. If investors know Devon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Devon Energy listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.09) | Dividend Share 2 | Earnings Share 5.4 | Revenue Per Share 23.117 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.10) |
The market value of Devon Energy is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Devon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Devon Energy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Devon Energy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Devon Energy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Devon Energy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Devon Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Devon Energy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Devon Energy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.