Ellington Residential Mortgage Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 3.12
| EARN Stock | USD 6.73 0.12 1.75% |
Ellington |
Ellington Residential Target Price Odds to finish below 3.12
The tendency of Ellington Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 3.12 or more in 90 days |
| 6.73 | 90 days | 3.12 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Ellington Residential to drop to $ 3.12 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Ellington Residential Mortgage probability density function shows the probability of Ellington Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Ellington Residential price to stay between $ 3.12 and its current price of $6.73 at the end of the 90-day period is about 57.81 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Ellington Residential has a beta of 0.2 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Ellington Residential average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Ellington Residential Mortgage will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Ellington Residential Mortgage has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Ellington Residential Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Ellington Residential
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ellington Residential. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Ellington Residential Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Ellington Residential is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Ellington Residential's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Ellington Residential Mortgage, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Ellington Residential within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.02 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.20 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.15 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.1 |
Ellington Residential Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Ellington Residential for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Ellington Residential can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Ellington Residential has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Ellington Residential Mortgage currently holds 729.54 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 8.04, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Ellington Residential has a current ratio of 0.17, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Ellington Residential's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| Ellington Residential Mortgage currently holds about 83 M in cash with (10.02 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 6.35. | |
| Ellington Residential has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| On 25th of November 2024 Ellington Residential paid $ 0.08 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
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Ellington Residential Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Ellington Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Ellington Residential's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ellington Residential's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 14.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 38.5 M |
Ellington Residential Technical Analysis
Ellington Residential's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Ellington Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Ellington Residential Mortgage. In general, you should focus on analyzing Ellington Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Ellington Residential Predictive Forecast Models
Ellington Residential's time-series forecasting models is one of many Ellington Residential's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Ellington Residential's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Ellington Residential
Checking the ongoing alerts about Ellington Residential for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Ellington Residential help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Ellington Residential has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Ellington Residential Mortgage currently holds 729.54 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 8.04, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Ellington Residential has a current ratio of 0.17, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Ellington Residential's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| Ellington Residential Mortgage currently holds about 83 M in cash with (10.02 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 6.35. | |
| Ellington Residential has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| On 25th of November 2024 Ellington Residential paid $ 0.08 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
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Check out Ellington Residential Backtesting, Ellington Residential Valuation, Ellington Residential Correlation, Ellington Residential Hype Analysis, Ellington Residential Volatility, Ellington Residential History as well as Ellington Residential Performance. You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.
Is Mortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ellington Residential. If investors know Ellington will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ellington Residential listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.185 | Dividend Share 0.96 | Earnings Share 1.27 | Revenue Per Share (0.92) | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.78) |
The market value of Ellington Residential is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ellington that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ellington Residential's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ellington Residential's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ellington Residential's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ellington Residential's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ellington Residential's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ellington Residential is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ellington Residential's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.