Ellington Residential Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| EARN Stock | USD 5.21 0.08 1.51% |
Ellington Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Ellington Residential's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Ellington Residential's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Ellington Residential fundamentals over time.
As of today the rsi of Ellington Residential's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.185 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.241 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.8989 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.9834 | Wall Street Target Price 5.75 |
Using Ellington Residential hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ellington Residential Mortgage from the perspective of Ellington Residential response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Ellington Residential using Ellington Residential's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Ellington using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Ellington Residential's stock price.
Ellington Residential Short Interest
An investor who is long Ellington Residential may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Ellington Residential and may potentially protect profits, hedge Ellington Residential with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 5.5205 | Short Percent 0.0077 | Short Ratio 0.86 | Shares Short Prior Month 495.4 K | 50 Day MA 5.3692 |
Ellington Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ellington Residential Mortgage on the next trading day is expected to be 5.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.27.Ellington Residential Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Ellington Residential's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Ellington. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Ellington can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Ellington Residential Mortgage. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Ellington Residential's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Ellington Residential.
Ellington Residential Implied Volatility | 1.29 |
Ellington Residential's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Ellington Residential Mortgage stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Ellington Residential's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Ellington Residential stock will not fluctuate a lot when Ellington Residential's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ellington Residential Mortgage on the next trading day is expected to be 5.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.27. Ellington Residential after-hype prediction price | USD 5.29 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Ellington Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Ellington Residential's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Ellington Residential's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Ellington Residential stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Ellington Residential's open interest, investors have to compare it to Ellington Residential's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Ellington Residential is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Ellington. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Ellington Residential Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ellington price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ellington using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ellington charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Ellington Residential Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 6th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ellington Residential Mortgage on the next trading day is expected to be 5.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.27.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ellington Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ellington Residential's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ellington Residential Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ellington Residential | Ellington Residential Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Ellington Residential Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ellington Residential's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ellington Residential's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3.91 and 6.51, respectively. We have considered Ellington Residential's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ellington Residential stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ellington Residential stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.9028 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0028 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0545 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0104 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.27 |
Predictive Modules for Ellington Residential
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ellington Residential. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Ellington Residential After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ellington Residential at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ellington Residential or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ellington Residential, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ellington Residential Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ellington Residential's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ellington Residential's historical news coverage. Ellington Residential's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 4.00 and 6.58, respectively. We have considered Ellington Residential's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ellington Residential is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ellington Residential is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ellington Residential Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ellington Residential is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ellington Residential backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ellington Residential, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.06 | 1.30 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 8 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
5.21 | 5.29 | 0.00 |
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Ellington Residential Hype Timeline
Ellington Residential is currently traded for 5.21. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.01. Ellington is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.06%. %. The volatility of related hype on Ellington Residential is about 734.46%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.22. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.88. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Ellington Residential last dividend was issued on the 30th of January 2026. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ellington Residential to cross-verify your projections.Ellington Residential Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ellington Residential's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ellington Residential's future price movements. Getting to know how Ellington Residential's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ellington Residential may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SWKH | SWK Holdings Corp | 0.90 | 7 per month | 0.81 | 0.04 | 1.59 | (1.31) | 9.41 | |
| MPV | Barings Participation Investors | 0.42 | 9 per month | 2.03 | (0.01) | 2.69 | (3.22) | 9.22 | |
| INV | Innventure | (0.07) | 10 per month | 6.82 | 0.06 | 17.85 | (12.20) | 43.34 | |
| MCGAU | MCGAU | 0.08 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.49) | 0.39 | (0.57) | 1.13 | |
| MCGA | MCGA | (0.02) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.45) | 0.20 | (0.58) | 1.28 | |
| NOAH | Noah Holdings | 0.12 | 10 per month | 1.35 | (0.01) | 3.32 | (2.20) | 8.29 | |
| OXSQ | Oxford Square Capital | (0.03) | 5 per month | 1.43 | 0.05 | 3.78 | (2.22) | 8.47 | |
| SOCA | Solarius Capital Acquisition | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.49) | 0.20 | (0.20) | 0.79 | |
| EFSI | Eagle Financial Services | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.91 | 0.06 | 2.35 | (1.51) | 5.82 | |
| STEX | Streamex Corp | 0.37 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 10.99 | (8.94) | 25.10 |
Other Forecasting Options for Ellington Residential
For every potential investor in Ellington, whether a beginner or expert, Ellington Residential's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ellington Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ellington. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ellington Residential's price trends.Ellington Residential Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ellington Residential stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ellington Residential could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ellington Residential by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ellington Residential Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ellington Residential stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ellington Residential shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ellington Residential stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ellington Residential Mortgage entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 5086.75 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.80) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 5.25 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 5.24 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.08) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.08) |
Ellington Residential Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ellington Residential's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ellington Residential's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ellington stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.07 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.27 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.35 | |||
| Variance | 1.81 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.86 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.62 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.12) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Ellington Residential
The number of cover stories for Ellington Residential depends on current market conditions and Ellington Residential's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ellington Residential is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ellington Residential's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Ellington Residential Short Properties
Ellington Residential's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ellington Residential's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ellington Residential Mortgage often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ellington Residential's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ellington Residential's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 27.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 31.8 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ellington Residential to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Bollinger Bands module to use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon.
Will Mortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) sector continue expanding? Could Ellington diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ellington Residential. Projected growth potential of Ellington fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Ellington Residential data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.185 | Dividend Share 0.96 | Earnings Share 0.28 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.34) |
Understanding Ellington Residential requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Ellington's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what Ellington Residential's is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Ellington Residential's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Ellington Residential's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Ellington Residential should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, Ellington Residential's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.