New Oriental Education Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 57.08
| EDU Stock | USD 59.52 0.94 1.60% |
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New Oriental Target Price Odds to finish below 57.08
The tendency of New Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 57.08 or more in 90 days |
| 59.52 | 90 days | 57.08 | about 15.03 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of New Oriental to drop to $ 57.08 or more in 90 days from now is about 15.03 (This New Oriental Education probability density function shows the probability of New Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of New Oriental Education price to stay between $ 57.08 and its current price of $59.52 at the end of the 90-day period is about 9.8 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon New Oriental has a beta of 0.86 suggesting New Oriental Education market returns are related to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, New Oriental is expected to follow. Additionally New Oriental Education has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. New Oriental Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for New Oriental
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as New Oriental Education. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of New Oriental's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
New Oriental Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. New Oriental is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the New Oriental's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold New Oriental Education, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of New Oriental within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.19 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.86 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 6.88 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
New Oriental Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of New Oriental for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for New Oriental Education can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| New Oriental had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| New Oriental is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| New Oriental has a very strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Harvest Fund Management Co. Ltd Grows Stake in New Oriental Education Technology Group Inc. |
New Oriental Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of New Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential New Oriental's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. New Oriental's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 166.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4.8 B |
New Oriental Technical Analysis
New Oriental's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. New Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of New Oriental Education. In general, you should focus on analyzing New Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
New Oriental Predictive Forecast Models
New Oriental's time-series forecasting models is one of many New Oriental's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary New Oriental's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about New Oriental Education
Checking the ongoing alerts about New Oriental for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for New Oriental Education help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| New Oriental had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| New Oriental is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| New Oriental has a very strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Harvest Fund Management Co. Ltd Grows Stake in New Oriental Education Technology Group Inc. |
Additional Tools for New Stock Analysis
When running New Oriental's price analysis, check to measure New Oriental's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy New Oriental is operating at the current time. Most of New Oriental's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of New Oriental's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move New Oriental's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of New Oriental to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.