Electrosteel Castings (India) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 144.93
| ELECTCAST | 144.93 0.98 0.68% |
Electrosteel |
Electrosteel Castings Target Price Odds to finish over 144.93
The tendency of Electrosteel Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 144.93 | 90 days | 144.93 | roughly 96.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Electrosteel Castings to move above the current price in 90 days from now is roughly 96.0 (This Electrosteel Castings Limited probability density function shows the probability of Electrosteel Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Electrosteel Castings has a beta of 0.11 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Electrosteel Castings average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Electrosteel Castings Limited will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Electrosteel Castings Limited has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Electrosteel Castings Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Electrosteel Castings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Electrosteel Castings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Electrosteel Castings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Electrosteel Castings Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Electrosteel Castings is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Electrosteel Castings' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Electrosteel Castings Limited, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Electrosteel Castings within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.51 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.11 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 27.01 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.18 |
Electrosteel Castings Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Electrosteel Castings for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Electrosteel Castings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Electrosteel Castings generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Electrosteel Castings has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Electrosteel Castings is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 52.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Electrosteel Castings Ltd leads losers in A group - Business Standard |
Electrosteel Castings Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Electrosteel Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Electrosteel Castings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Electrosteel Castings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 601.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 5.4 B |
Electrosteel Castings Technical Analysis
Electrosteel Castings' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Electrosteel Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Electrosteel Castings Limited. In general, you should focus on analyzing Electrosteel Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Electrosteel Castings Predictive Forecast Models
Electrosteel Castings' time-series forecasting models is one of many Electrosteel Castings' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Electrosteel Castings' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Electrosteel Castings
Checking the ongoing alerts about Electrosteel Castings for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Electrosteel Castings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Electrosteel Castings generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Electrosteel Castings has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Electrosteel Castings is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 52.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Electrosteel Castings Ltd leads losers in A group - Business Standard |
Other Information on Investing in Electrosteel Stock
Electrosteel Castings financial ratios help investors to determine whether Electrosteel Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Electrosteel with respect to the benefits of owning Electrosteel Castings security.