Elkem ASA (Norway) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 18.1
| ELK Stock | NOK 18.25 0.03 0.16% |
Elkem |
Elkem ASA Target Price Odds to finish below 18.1
The tendency of Elkem Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 18.10 or more in 90 days |
| 18.25 | 90 days | 18.10 | about 32.18 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Elkem ASA to drop to 18.10 or more in 90 days from now is about 32.18 (This Elkem ASA probability density function shows the probability of Elkem Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Elkem ASA price to stay between 18.10 and its current price of 18.25 at the end of the 90-day period is nearly 4.21 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Elkem ASA has a beta of 0.39 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Elkem ASA average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Elkem ASA will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Elkem ASA has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Elkem ASA Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Elkem ASA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Elkem ASA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Elkem ASA Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Elkem ASA is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Elkem ASA's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Elkem ASA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Elkem ASA within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.19 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.39 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.31 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.12 |
Elkem ASA Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Elkem ASA for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Elkem ASA can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Elkem ASA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Elkem ASA has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| About 55.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Elkem ASA Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Elkem Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Elkem ASA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Elkem ASA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 634.5 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 1.9 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 9.3 B | |
| Forward Annual Dividend Rate | 6 | |
| Shares Float | 299.8 M |
Elkem ASA Technical Analysis
Elkem ASA's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Elkem Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Elkem ASA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Elkem Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Elkem ASA Predictive Forecast Models
Elkem ASA's time-series forecasting models is one of many Elkem ASA's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Elkem ASA's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Elkem ASA
Checking the ongoing alerts about Elkem ASA for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Elkem ASA help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Elkem ASA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Elkem ASA has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| About 55.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Elkem Stock
Elkem ASA financial ratios help investors to determine whether Elkem Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Elkem with respect to the benefits of owning Elkem ASA security.