Estoril Sol (Portugal) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 3.20

ESON Stock  EUR 3.20  0.70  17.95%   
Estoril Sol's future price is the expected price of Estoril Sol instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Estoril Sol SGPS performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Estoril Sol Analysis, Estoril Sol Valuation, Estoril Sol Correlation, Estoril Sol Hype Analysis, Estoril Sol Volatility, Estoril Sol Price History as well as Estoril Sol Performance.
  
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Estoril Sol Target Price Odds to finish over 3.20

The tendency of Estoril Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 3.20 90 days 3.20 
about 84.98
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Estoril Sol to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 84.98 (This Estoril Sol SGPS probability density function shows the probability of Estoril Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Estoril Sol has a beta of 0.0295 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Estoril Sol average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Estoril Sol SGPS will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Estoril Sol SGPS has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Estoril Sol Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Estoril Sol

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Estoril Sol SGPS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.163.207.59
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.142.817.20
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
0.073.337.71
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
3.203.203.20
Details

Estoril Sol Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Estoril Sol is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Estoril Sol's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Estoril Sol SGPS, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Estoril Sol within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.09
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.03
σ
Overall volatility
0.28
Ir
Information ratio -0.03

Estoril Sol Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Estoril Sol for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Estoril Sol SGPS can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Estoril Sol SGPS generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Estoril Sol SGPS has high historical volatility and very poor performance
About 90.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders

Estoril Sol Technical Analysis

Estoril Sol's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Estoril Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Estoril Sol SGPS. In general, you should focus on analyzing Estoril Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Estoril Sol Predictive Forecast Models

Estoril Sol's time-series forecasting models is one of many Estoril Sol's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Estoril Sol's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Estoril Sol SGPS

Checking the ongoing alerts about Estoril Sol for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Estoril Sol SGPS help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Estoril Sol SGPS generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Estoril Sol SGPS has high historical volatility and very poor performance
About 90.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders

Additional Tools for Estoril Stock Analysis

When running Estoril Sol's price analysis, check to measure Estoril Sol's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Estoril Sol is operating at the current time. Most of Estoril Sol's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Estoril Sol's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Estoril Sol's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Estoril Sol to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.