Elastic Nv Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 78.19
| ESTC Stock | USD 109.46 0.67 0.61% |
Elastic |
Elastic NV Target Price Odds to finish below 78.19
The tendency of Elastic Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 78.19 or more in 90 days |
| 109.46 | 90 days | 78.19 | about 32.14 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Elastic NV to drop to $ 78.19 or more in 90 days from now is about 32.14 (This Elastic NV probability density function shows the probability of Elastic Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Elastic NV price to stay between $ 78.19 and its current price of $109.46 at the end of the 90-day period is about 67.35 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.66 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Elastic NV will likely underperform. Additionally Elastic NV has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Elastic NV Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Elastic NV
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Elastic NV. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Elastic NV's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Elastic NV Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Elastic NV is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Elastic NV's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Elastic NV, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Elastic NV within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.66 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 10.05 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.01 |
Elastic NV Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Elastic NV for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Elastic NV can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Elastic NV has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 92.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Autodesk appoints Janesh Moorjani as chief financial officer |
Elastic NV Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Elastic Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Elastic NV's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Elastic NV's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 104 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.1 B |
Elastic NV Technical Analysis
Elastic NV's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Elastic Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Elastic NV. In general, you should focus on analyzing Elastic Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Elastic NV Predictive Forecast Models
Elastic NV's time-series forecasting models is one of many Elastic NV's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Elastic NV's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Elastic NV
Checking the ongoing alerts about Elastic NV for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Elastic NV help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Elastic NV has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 92.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Autodesk appoints Janesh Moorjani as chief financial officer |
Check out Elastic NV Backtesting, Elastic NV Valuation, Elastic NV Correlation, Elastic NV Hype Analysis, Elastic NV Volatility, Elastic NV History as well as Elastic NV Performance. For information on how to trade Elastic Stock refer to our How to Trade Elastic Stock guide.You can also try the Pair Correlation module to compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments.
Is Application Software space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Elastic NV. If investors know Elastic will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Elastic NV listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share 0.59 | Revenue Per Share 13.114 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.183 | Return On Assets (0.04) | Return On Equity 0.1042 |
The market value of Elastic NV is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Elastic that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Elastic NV's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Elastic NV's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Elastic NV's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Elastic NV's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Elastic NV's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Elastic NV is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Elastic NV's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.