Exide Industries (India) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 415.35
| EXIDEIND | 415.35 6.15 1.46% |
Exide |
Exide Industries Target Price Odds to finish below 415.35
The tendency of Exide Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move below current price in 90 days |
| 415.35 | 90 days | 415.35 | about 1.39 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Exide Industries to move below current price in 90 days from now is about 1.39 (This Exide Industries Limited probability density function shows the probability of Exide Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Exide Industries has a beta of 0.0515 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Exide Industries average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Exide Industries Limited will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Exide Industries Limited has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Exide Industries Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Exide Industries
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Exide Industries. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Exide Industries' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Exide Industries Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Exide Industries is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Exide Industries' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Exide Industries Limited, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Exide Industries within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.27 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.05 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 28.28 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.17 |
Exide Industries Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Exide Industries for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Exide Industries can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Exide Industries generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Exide Industries is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 51.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Amara Raja, Exide Industries slide up to 30 percent from recent peaks. What should investors do Stock Market News - Mint |
Exide Industries Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Exide Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Exide Industries' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Exide Industries' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 850 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 5.8 B |
Exide Industries Technical Analysis
Exide Industries' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Exide Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Exide Industries Limited. In general, you should focus on analyzing Exide Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Exide Industries Predictive Forecast Models
Exide Industries' time-series forecasting models is one of many Exide Industries' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Exide Industries' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Exide Industries
Checking the ongoing alerts about Exide Industries for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Exide Industries help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Exide Industries generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Exide Industries is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 51.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Amara Raja, Exide Industries slide up to 30 percent from recent peaks. What should investors do Stock Market News - Mint |
Other Information on Investing in Exide Stock
Exide Industries financial ratios help investors to determine whether Exide Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Exide with respect to the benefits of owning Exide Industries security.