American States (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 78.86
| FDK Stock | EUR 80.25 0.65 0.82% |
American |
American States Target Price Odds to finish below 78.86
The tendency of American Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 78.86 or more in 90 days |
| 80.25 | 90 days | 78.86 | about 82.96 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of American States to drop to € 78.86 or more in 90 days from now is about 82.96 (This American States Water probability density function shows the probability of American Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of American States Water price to stay between € 78.86 and its current price of €80.25 at the end of the 90-day period is about 9.58 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon American States has a beta of 0.27. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, American States average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding American States Water will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally American States Water has an alpha of 0.1111, implying that it can generate a 0.11 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). American States Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for American States
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American States Water. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.American States Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. American States is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the American States' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold American States Water, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of American States within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.11 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.27 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.80 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.01 |
American States Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of American States for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for American States Water can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| American States has accumulated €586.68 Million in debt which can lead to volatile earnings | |
| Over 79.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
American States Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of American Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential American States' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American States' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 36.9 M |
American States Technical Analysis
American States' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. American Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of American States Water. In general, you should focus on analyzing American Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
American States Predictive Forecast Models
American States' time-series forecasting models is one of many American States' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary American States' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about American States Water
Checking the ongoing alerts about American States for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for American States Water help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| American States has accumulated €586.68 Million in debt which can lead to volatile earnings | |
| Over 79.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in American Stock
When determining whether American States Water is a strong investment it is important to analyze American States' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact American States' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding American Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out American States Backtesting, American States Valuation, American States Correlation, American States Hype Analysis, American States Volatility, American States History as well as American States Performance. You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.