Fidelity America (Germany) Probability of Future Fund Price Finishing Under 11.75

FJ21 Fund  EUR 16.15  0.06  0.37%   
Fidelity America's future price is the expected price of Fidelity America instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Fidelity America AD performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Fidelity America Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Fidelity America Correlation, Fidelity America Hype Analysis, Fidelity America Volatility, Fidelity America History as well as Fidelity America Performance.
  
Please specify Fidelity America's target price for which you would like Fidelity America odds to be computed.

Fidelity America Target Price Odds to finish below 11.75

The tendency of Fidelity Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to € 11.75  or more in 90 days
 16.15 90 days 11.75 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Fidelity America to drop to € 11.75  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Fidelity America AD probability density function shows the probability of Fidelity Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Fidelity America price to stay between € 11.75  and its current price of €16.15 at the end of the 90-day period is about 85.42 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Fidelity America has a beta of 0.69. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Fidelity America average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Fidelity America AD will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Fidelity America AD has an alpha of 0.0979, implying that it can generate a 0.0979 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Fidelity America Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Fidelity America

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fidelity America. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
15.1716.1517.13
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
14.5317.2618.24
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
14.6815.6616.64
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
16.0316.3816.72
Details

Fidelity America Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Fidelity America is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Fidelity America's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Fidelity America AD, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Fidelity America within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.1
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.69
σ
Overall volatility
0.72
Ir
Information ratio 0.07

Fidelity America Technical Analysis

Fidelity America's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Fidelity Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Fidelity America AD. In general, you should focus on analyzing Fidelity Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Fidelity America Predictive Forecast Models

Fidelity America's time-series forecasting models is one of many Fidelity America's fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Fidelity America's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Fidelity America in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Fidelity America's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Fidelity America options trading.

Other Information on Investing in Fidelity Fund

Fidelity America financial ratios help investors to determine whether Fidelity Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Fidelity with respect to the benefits of owning Fidelity America security.
Fundamental Analysis
View fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements
Transaction History
View history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance