First Quantum Minerals Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 18.67
| FM Stock | CAD 18.69 0.22 1.16% |
First |
First Quantum Target Price Odds to finish below 18.67
The tendency of First Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to C$ 18.67 or more in 90 days |
| 18.69 | 90 days | 18.67 | about 73.89 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of First Quantum to drop to C$ 18.67 or more in 90 days from now is about 73.89 (This First Quantum Minerals probability density function shows the probability of First Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of First Quantum Minerals price to stay between C$ 18.67 and its current price of C$18.69 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon First Quantum has a beta of 0.0225. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, First Quantum average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding First Quantum Minerals will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally First Quantum Minerals has an alpha of 0.1602, implying that it can generate a 0.16 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). First Quantum Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for First Quantum
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Quantum Minerals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of First Quantum's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
First Quantum Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. First Quantum is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the First Quantum's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold First Quantum Minerals, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of First Quantum within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.16 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.02 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.35 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.01 |
First Quantum Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of First Quantum for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for First Quantum Minerals can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| First Quantum had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the revenue of 6.46 B. Net Loss for the year was (1.24 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 2.2 B. | |
| About 19.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: First Quantum Minerals Stock Passes Above 200-Day Moving Average - Heres What Happened - MarketBeat |
First Quantum Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of First Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential First Quantum's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. First Quantum's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 690.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.2 B |
First Quantum Technical Analysis
First Quantum's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. First Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of First Quantum Minerals. In general, you should focus on analyzing First Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
First Quantum Predictive Forecast Models
First Quantum's time-series forecasting models is one of many First Quantum's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary First Quantum's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about First Quantum Minerals
Checking the ongoing alerts about First Quantum for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for First Quantum Minerals help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| First Quantum had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the revenue of 6.46 B. Net Loss for the year was (1.24 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 2.2 B. | |
| About 19.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: First Quantum Minerals Stock Passes Above 200-Day Moving Average - Heres What Happened - MarketBeat |
Other Information on Investing in First Stock
First Quantum financial ratios help investors to determine whether First Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in First with respect to the benefits of owning First Quantum security.