Paragon 28 Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 29.41
| FNA Stock | USD 10.31 0.32 3.20% |
Paragon |
Paragon 28 Target Price Odds to finish over 29.41
The tendency of Paragon Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 29.41 or more in 90 days |
| 10.31 | 90 days | 29.41 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Paragon 28 to move over $ 29.41 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Paragon 28 probability density function shows the probability of Paragon Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Paragon 28 price to stay between its current price of $ 10.31 and $ 29.41 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.62 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.47 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Paragon 28 will likely underperform. Additionally Paragon 28 has an alpha of 0.1698, implying that it can generate a 0.17 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Paragon 28 Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Paragon 28
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Paragon 28. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Paragon 28 Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Paragon 28 is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Paragon 28's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Paragon 28, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Paragon 28 within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.17 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.47 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.67 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.05 |
Paragon 28 Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Paragon 28 for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Paragon 28 can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Paragon 28 is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Paragon 28 appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 216.39 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (47.84 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 148.93 M. | |
| Paragon 28 has about 73 M in cash with (63.89 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.95. | |
| Paragon 28 has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 61.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Paragon 28, Inc. Major Shareholder Sells 732,871.28 in Stock |
Paragon 28 Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Paragon Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Paragon 28's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Paragon 28's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 82.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 75.6 M |
Paragon 28 Technical Analysis
Paragon 28's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Paragon Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Paragon 28. In general, you should focus on analyzing Paragon Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Paragon 28 Predictive Forecast Models
Paragon 28's time-series forecasting models is one of many Paragon 28's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Paragon 28's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Paragon 28
Checking the ongoing alerts about Paragon 28 for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Paragon 28 help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Paragon 28 is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Paragon 28 appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 216.39 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (47.84 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 148.93 M. | |
| Paragon 28 has about 73 M in cash with (63.89 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.95. | |
| Paragon 28 has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 61.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Paragon 28, Inc. Major Shareholder Sells 732,871.28 in Stock |
Check out Paragon 28 Backtesting, Paragon 28 Valuation, Paragon 28 Correlation, Paragon 28 Hype Analysis, Paragon 28 Volatility, Paragon 28 History as well as Paragon 28 Performance. For information on how to trade Paragon Stock refer to our How to Trade Paragon Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Analyzer module to portfolio analysis module that provides access to portfolio diagnostics and optimization engine.
Is Health Care Equipment & Supplies space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Paragon 28. If investors know Paragon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Paragon 28 listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.67) | Revenue Per Share 2.95 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.181 | Return On Assets (0.08) | Return On Equity (0.34) |
The market value of Paragon 28 is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Paragon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Paragon 28's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Paragon 28's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Paragon 28's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Paragon 28's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Paragon 28's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Paragon 28 is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Paragon 28's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.