Falcon Oil (UK) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 6.15
| FOG Stock | 4.25 0.15 3.66% |
Falcon |
Falcon Oil Target Price Odds to finish over 6.15
The tendency of Falcon Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 6.15 or more in 90 days |
| 4.25 | 90 days | 6.15 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Falcon Oil to move over 6.15 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Falcon Oil Gas probability density function shows the probability of Falcon Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Falcon Oil Gas price to stay between its current price of 4.25 and 6.15 at the end of the 90-day period is about 91.83 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Falcon Oil has a beta of 0.27. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Falcon Oil average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Falcon Oil Gas will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Falcon Oil Gas has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Falcon Oil Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Falcon Oil
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Falcon Oil Gas. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Falcon Oil Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Falcon Oil is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Falcon Oil's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Falcon Oil Gas, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Falcon Oil within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.34 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.27 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.33 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.21 |
Falcon Oil Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Falcon Oil for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Falcon Oil Gas can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Falcon Oil Gas generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Falcon Oil Gas has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| Net Loss for the year was (3.34 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 2 K. | |
| Falcon Oil generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| About 25.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: FOLGF Shares Outstanding 1,109.14 Mil - GuruFocus.com |
Falcon Oil Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Falcon Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Falcon Oil's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Falcon Oil's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 8 M | |
| Shares Float | 828.7 M |
Falcon Oil Technical Analysis
Falcon Oil's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Falcon Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Falcon Oil Gas. In general, you should focus on analyzing Falcon Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Falcon Oil Predictive Forecast Models
Falcon Oil's time-series forecasting models is one of many Falcon Oil's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Falcon Oil's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Falcon Oil Gas
Checking the ongoing alerts about Falcon Oil for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Falcon Oil Gas help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Falcon Oil Gas generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Falcon Oil Gas has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| Net Loss for the year was (3.34 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 2 K. | |
| Falcon Oil generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| About 25.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: FOLGF Shares Outstanding 1,109.14 Mil - GuruFocus.com |
Other Information on Investing in Falcon Stock
Falcon Oil financial ratios help investors to determine whether Falcon Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Falcon with respect to the benefits of owning Falcon Oil security.