First Majestic (Mexico) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 480.95
| FR Stock | 483.00 5.56 1.14% |
First |
First Majestic Target Price Odds to finish over 480.95
The tendency of First Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above 480.95 in 90 days |
| 483.00 | 90 days | 480.95 | roughly 97.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of First Majestic to stay above 480.95 in 90 days from now is roughly 97.0 (This First Majestic Silver probability density function shows the probability of First Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of First Majestic Silver price to stay between 480.95 and its current price of 483.0 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.86 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon First Majestic has a beta of 0.0629. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, First Majestic average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding First Majestic Silver will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally First Majestic Silver has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. First Majestic Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for First Majestic
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Majestic Silver. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.First Majestic Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. First Majestic is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the First Majestic's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold First Majestic Silver, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of First Majestic within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.06 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.06 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 6.88 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.18 |
First Majestic Technical Analysis
First Majestic's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. First Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of First Majestic Silver. In general, you should focus on analyzing First Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
First Majestic Predictive Forecast Models
First Majestic's time-series forecasting models is one of many First Majestic's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary First Majestic's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards First Majestic in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, First Majestic's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from First Majestic options trading.
Additional Tools for First Stock Analysis
When running First Majestic's price analysis, check to measure First Majestic's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First Majestic is operating at the current time. Most of First Majestic's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First Majestic's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First Majestic's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First Majestic to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.