Games Workshop (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 164.51
| G7W Stock | 169.00 3.60 2.18% |
Games |
Games Workshop Target Price Odds to finish below 164.51
The tendency of Games Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 164.51 or more in 90 days |
| 169.00 | 90 days | 164.51 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Games Workshop to drop to 164.51 or more in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Games Workshop Group probability density function shows the probability of Games Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Games Workshop Group price to stay between 164.51 and its current price of 169.0 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Games Workshop has a beta of 0.58. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Games Workshop average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Games Workshop Group will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Games Workshop Group has an alpha of 0.417, implying that it can generate a 0.42 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Games Workshop Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Games Workshop
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Games Workshop Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Games Workshop's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Games Workshop Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Games Workshop is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Games Workshop's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Games Workshop Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Games Workshop within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.42 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.58 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 11.53 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.13 |
Games Workshop Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Games Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Games Workshop's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Games Workshop's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 32.8 M | |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0147 |
Games Workshop Technical Analysis
Games Workshop's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Games Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Games Workshop Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing Games Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Games Workshop Predictive Forecast Models
Games Workshop's time-series forecasting models is one of many Games Workshop's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Games Workshop's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Games Workshop in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Games Workshop's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Games Workshop options trading.
Additional Tools for Games Stock Analysis
When running Games Workshop's price analysis, check to measure Games Workshop's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Games Workshop is operating at the current time. Most of Games Workshop's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Games Workshop's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Games Workshop's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Games Workshop to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.