Garanti Faktoring (Turkey) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 12.85
| GARFA Stock | TRY 19.73 0.05 0.25% |
Garanti |
Garanti Faktoring Target Price Odds to finish below 12.85
The tendency of Garanti Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 12.85 or more in 90 days |
| 19.73 | 90 days | 12.85 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Garanti Faktoring to drop to 12.85 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Garanti Faktoring AS probability density function shows the probability of Garanti Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Garanti Faktoring price to stay between 12.85 and its current price of 19.73 at the end of the 90-day period is about 48.85 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Garanti Faktoring has a beta of 0.31. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Garanti Faktoring average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Garanti Faktoring AS will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Garanti Faktoring AS has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Garanti Faktoring Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Garanti Faktoring
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Garanti Faktoring. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Garanti Faktoring Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Garanti Faktoring is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Garanti Faktoring's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Garanti Faktoring AS, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Garanti Faktoring within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.06 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.31 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.07 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.07 |
Garanti Faktoring Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Garanti Faktoring for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Garanti Faktoring can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Garanti Faktoring generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 92.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Garanti Faktoring Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Garanti Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Garanti Faktoring's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Garanti Faktoring's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 79.5 M |
Garanti Faktoring Technical Analysis
Garanti Faktoring's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Garanti Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Garanti Faktoring AS. In general, you should focus on analyzing Garanti Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Garanti Faktoring Predictive Forecast Models
Garanti Faktoring's time-series forecasting models is one of many Garanti Faktoring's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Garanti Faktoring's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Garanti Faktoring
Checking the ongoing alerts about Garanti Faktoring for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Garanti Faktoring help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Garanti Faktoring generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 92.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Garanti Stock
Garanti Faktoring financial ratios help investors to determine whether Garanti Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Garanti with respect to the benefits of owning Garanti Faktoring security.