Great Elm Capital Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 25.23
| GECCZ Stock | 25.46 0.06 0.24% |
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Great Elm Target Price Odds to finish below 25.23
The tendency of Great Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 25.23 or more in 90 days |
| 25.46 | 90 days | 25.23 | about 39.88 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Great Elm to drop to 25.23 or more in 90 days from now is about 39.88 (This Great Elm Capital probability density function shows the probability of Great Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Great Elm Capital price to stay between 25.23 and its current price of 25.46 at the end of the 90-day period is about 38.32 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Great Elm has a beta of 0.0414. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Great Elm average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Great Elm Capital will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Great Elm Capital has an alpha of 0.024, implying that it can generate a 0.024 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Great Elm Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Great Elm
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Great Elm Capital. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Great Elm's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Great Elm Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Great Elm is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Great Elm's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Great Elm Capital, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Great Elm within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.02 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.04 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.22 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.32 |
Great Elm Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Great Elm for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Great Elm Capital can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Great Elm Capital is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Great Elm Capital has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| On 30th of September 2024 Great Elm paid 0.5469 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Great Elm Capital Reports Strong Q3 2024 Results - TipRanks |
Great Elm Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Great Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Great Elm's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Great Elm's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Dividend Yield | 0.0324 | |
| Shares Short Prior Month | 1472 |
Great Elm Technical Analysis
Great Elm's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Great Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Great Elm Capital. In general, you should focus on analyzing Great Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Great Elm Predictive Forecast Models
Great Elm's time-series forecasting models is one of many Great Elm's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Great Elm's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Great Elm Capital
Checking the ongoing alerts about Great Elm for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Great Elm Capital help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Great Elm Capital is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Great Elm Capital has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| On 30th of September 2024 Great Elm paid 0.5469 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Great Elm Capital Reports Strong Q3 2024 Results - TipRanks |
Additional Tools for Great Stock Analysis
When running Great Elm's price analysis, check to measure Great Elm's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Great Elm is operating at the current time. Most of Great Elm's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Great Elm's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Great Elm's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Great Elm to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.