Gema Grahasarana (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 216.73
| GEMA Stock | IDR 234.00 4.00 1.74% |
Gema |
Gema Grahasarana Target Price Odds to finish below 216.73
The tendency of Gema Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 216.73 or more in 90 days |
| 234.00 | 90 days | 216.73 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Gema Grahasarana to drop to 216.73 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Gema Grahasarana Tbk probability density function shows the probability of Gema Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Gema Grahasarana Tbk price to stay between 216.73 and its current price of 234.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 5.27 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Gema Grahasarana has a beta of 0.36. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Gema Grahasarana average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Gema Grahasarana Tbk will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Gema Grahasarana Tbk has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Gema Grahasarana Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Gema Grahasarana
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gema Grahasarana Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Gema Grahasarana Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Gema Grahasarana is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Gema Grahasarana's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Gema Grahasarana Tbk, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Gema Grahasarana within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.24 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.36 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 15.78 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
Gema Grahasarana Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Gema Grahasarana for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Gema Grahasarana Tbk can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Gema Grahasarana Tbk generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Gema Grahasarana Tbk has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Gema Grahasarana Tbk has accumulated 98.2 Billion in debt which can lead to volatile earnings | |
| Gema Grahasarana Tbk has accumulated about 55.14 B in cash with (4.04 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 34.47. | |
| Roughly 79.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Gema Grahasarana Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Gema Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Gema Grahasarana's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Gema Grahasarana's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.6 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 67 B |
Gema Grahasarana Technical Analysis
Gema Grahasarana's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Gema Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Gema Grahasarana Tbk. In general, you should focus on analyzing Gema Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Gema Grahasarana Predictive Forecast Models
Gema Grahasarana's time-series forecasting models is one of many Gema Grahasarana's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Gema Grahasarana's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Gema Grahasarana Tbk
Checking the ongoing alerts about Gema Grahasarana for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Gema Grahasarana Tbk help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Gema Grahasarana Tbk generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Gema Grahasarana Tbk has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Gema Grahasarana Tbk has accumulated 98.2 Billion in debt which can lead to volatile earnings | |
| Gema Grahasarana Tbk has accumulated about 55.14 B in cash with (4.04 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 34.47. | |
| Roughly 79.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Gema Stock
Gema Grahasarana financial ratios help investors to determine whether Gema Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Gema with respect to the benefits of owning Gema Grahasarana security.