Gerdau Sa Adr Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 3.44
| GGB Stock | USD 3.39 0.08 2.31% |
Closest to current price Gerdau long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Gerdau |
Gerdau SA Target Price Odds to finish below 3.44
The tendency of Gerdau Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 3.44 after 90 days |
| 3.39 | 90 days | 3.44 | about 78.19 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Gerdau SA to stay under $ 3.44 after 90 days from now is about 78.19 (This Gerdau SA ADR probability density function shows the probability of Gerdau Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Gerdau SA ADR price to stay between its current price of $ 3.39 and $ 3.44 at the end of the 90-day period is about 11.81 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.61 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Gerdau SA will likely underperform. Additionally Gerdau SA ADR has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Gerdau SA Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Gerdau SA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gerdau SA ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Gerdau SA Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Gerdau SA is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Gerdau SA's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Gerdau SA ADR, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Gerdau SA within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.13 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.61 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.14 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.03 |
Gerdau SA Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Gerdau SA for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Gerdau SA ADR can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Latest headline from investing.com: Gerdau reports updates to foreign private issuer status |
Gerdau SA Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Gerdau Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Gerdau SA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Gerdau SA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.1 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 5.3 B |
Gerdau SA Technical Analysis
Gerdau SA's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Gerdau Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Gerdau SA ADR. In general, you should focus on analyzing Gerdau Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Gerdau SA Predictive Forecast Models
Gerdau SA's time-series forecasting models is one of many Gerdau SA's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Gerdau SA's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Gerdau SA ADR
Checking the ongoing alerts about Gerdau SA for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Gerdau SA ADR help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Latest headline from investing.com: Gerdau reports updates to foreign private issuer status |
Check out Gerdau SA Backtesting, Gerdau SA Valuation, Gerdau SA Correlation, Gerdau SA Hype Analysis, Gerdau SA Volatility, Gerdau SA History as well as Gerdau SA Performance. You can also try the Idea Analyzer module to analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas.
Is Metals & Mining space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Gerdau SA. If investors know Gerdau will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Gerdau SA listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.14) | Dividend Share 0.783 | Earnings Share 0.39 | Revenue Per Share 30.909 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.018 |
The market value of Gerdau SA ADR is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Gerdau that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Gerdau SA's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Gerdau SA's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Gerdau SA's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Gerdau SA's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Gerdau SA's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Gerdau SA is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Gerdau SA's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.