Gerdau SA Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| GGB Stock | USD 4.53 0.20 4.62% |
Gerdau Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Gerdau SA stock prices and determine the direction of Gerdau SA ADR's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Gerdau SA's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength momentum indicator of Gerdau SA's share price is above 70 at the present time. This usually indicates that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Gerdau, making its price go up or down. Momentum 72
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.16) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.3285 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.7964 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.6264 | Wall Street Target Price 4.7139 |
Using Gerdau SA hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Gerdau SA ADR from the perspective of Gerdau SA response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Gerdau SA using Gerdau SA's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Gerdau using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Gerdau SA's stock price.
Gerdau SA Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Gerdau SA's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Gerdau. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Gerdau SA stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 3.1741 | Short Percent 0.019 | Short Ratio 1.31 | Shares Short Prior Month 17.4 M | 50 Day MA 3.7464 |
Gerdau Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Gerdau SA ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 4.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.59.Gerdau SA ADR Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Gerdau SA's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Gerdau. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Gerdau can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Gerdau SA ADR. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Gerdau SA's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Gerdau SA.
Gerdau SA Implied Volatility | 0.91 |
Gerdau SA's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Gerdau SA ADR stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Gerdau SA's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Gerdau SA stock will not fluctuate a lot when Gerdau SA's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Gerdau SA ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 4.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.59. Gerdau SA after-hype prediction price | USD 4.53 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Gerdau SA to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Gerdau Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Gerdau SA's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Gerdau SA's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Gerdau SA stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Gerdau SA's open interest, investors have to compare it to Gerdau SA's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Gerdau SA is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Gerdau. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Gerdau SA Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Gerdau price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Gerdau using various technical indicators. When you analyze Gerdau charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Gerdau SA Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Gerdau SA's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 1999-12-31 | Previous Quarter 8.5 B | Current Value 9.4 B | Quarterly Volatility 2 B |
Gerdau SA Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Gerdau SA ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 4.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.59.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Gerdau Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Gerdau SA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Gerdau SA Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Gerdau SA | Gerdau SA Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Gerdau SA Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Gerdau SA's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Gerdau SA's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.64 and 6.53, respectively. We have considered Gerdau SA's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Gerdau SA stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Gerdau SA stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.841 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0589 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0161 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.5924 |
Predictive Modules for Gerdau SA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gerdau SA ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Gerdau SA After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Gerdau SA at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Gerdau SA or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Gerdau SA, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Gerdau SA Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Gerdau SA's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Gerdau SA's historical news coverage. Gerdau SA's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 2.59 and 6.47, respectively. We have considered Gerdau SA's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Gerdau SA is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Gerdau SA ADR is based on 3 months time horizon.
Gerdau SA Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Gerdau SA is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Gerdau SA backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Gerdau SA, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.42 | 1.94 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 6 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
4.53 | 4.53 | 0.00 |
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Gerdau SA Hype Timeline
On the 27th of January Gerdau SA ADR is traded for 4.53. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.04. Gerdau is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.42%. %. The volatility of related hype on Gerdau SA is about 1847.62%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 4.49. About 28.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.83. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Gerdau SA ADR last dividend was issued on the 12th of November 2025. The entity had 6:5 split on the 18th of April 2024. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Gerdau SA to cross-verify your projections.Gerdau SA Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Gerdau SA's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Gerdau SA's future price movements. Getting to know how Gerdau SA's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Gerdau SA may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TX | Ternium SA ADR | (0.39) | 3 per month | 1.32 | 0.14 | 3.07 | (2.64) | 8.99 | |
| CMC | Commercial Metals | 0.76 | 13 per month | 1.16 | 0.17 | 3.69 | (1.85) | 8.69 | |
| CLF | Cleveland Cliffs | (0.39) | 10 per month | 4.87 | 0 | 5.23 | (7.09) | 17.41 | |
| EXP | Eagle Materials | (2.44) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.89 | (2.74) | 9.20 | |
| NEU | NewMarket | 1.08 | 22 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.25 | (2.77) | 11.14 | |
| EMN | Eastman Chemical | (0.39) | 10 per month | 1.78 | 0.07 | 4.94 | (3.60) | 9.74 | |
| IAG | IAMGold | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.05 | 0.27 | 5.49 | (4.44) | 18.37 | |
| AXTA | Axalta Coating Systems | 0.35 | 10 per month | 1.11 | 0.12 | 2.69 | (2.53) | 7.97 | |
| ESI | Element Solutions | 0.76 | 16 per month | 1.71 | 0.05 | 3.96 | (3.60) | 10.60 | |
| HBM | Hudbay Minerals | (0.39) | 19 per month | 2.18 | 0.25 | 5.44 | (4.01) | 12.33 |
Other Forecasting Options for Gerdau SA
For every potential investor in Gerdau, whether a beginner or expert, Gerdau SA's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Gerdau Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Gerdau. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Gerdau SA's price trends.Gerdau SA Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Gerdau SA stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Gerdau SA could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Gerdau SA by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Gerdau SA Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Gerdau SA stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Gerdau SA shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Gerdau SA stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Gerdau SA ADR entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Gerdau SA Risk Indicators
The analysis of Gerdau SA's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Gerdau SA's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting gerdau stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.45 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.47 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.94 | |||
| Variance | 3.76 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.21 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.17 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.78) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Gerdau SA
The number of cover stories for Gerdau SA depends on current market conditions and Gerdau SA's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Gerdau SA is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Gerdau SA's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Gerdau SA Short Properties
Gerdau SA's future price predictability will typically decrease when Gerdau SA's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Gerdau SA ADR often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Gerdau SA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Gerdau SA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.1 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 8.3 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Gerdau SA to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.
Is Metals & Mining space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Gerdau SA. If investors know Gerdau will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Gerdau SA listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.16) | Dividend Share 0.62 | Earnings Share 0.28 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.035 |
The market value of Gerdau SA ADR is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Gerdau that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Gerdau SA's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Gerdau SA's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Gerdau SA's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Gerdau SA's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Gerdau SA's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Gerdau SA is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Gerdau SA's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.