Guidepath Tactical Allocation Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 17.22
| GPTUX Fund | USD 15.16 0.03 0.20% |
Guidepath(r) |
Guidepath(r) Tactical Target Price Odds to finish over 17.22
The tendency of Guidepath(r) Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 17.22 or more in 90 days |
| 15.16 | 90 days | 17.22 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Guidepath(r) Tactical to move over $ 17.22 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Guidepath Tactical Allocation probability density function shows the probability of Guidepath(r) Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Guidepath(r) Tactical price to stay between its current price of $ 15.16 and $ 17.22 at the end of the 90-day period is about 5.8 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Guidepath(r) Tactical has a beta of 0.76. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Guidepath(r) Tactical average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Guidepath Tactical Allocation will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Guidepath Tactical Allocation has an alpha of 0.0304, implying that it can generate a 0.0304 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Guidepath(r) Tactical Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Guidepath(r) Tactical
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Guidepath(r) Tactical. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Guidepath(r) Tactical's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Guidepath(r) Tactical Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Guidepath(r) Tactical is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Guidepath(r) Tactical's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Guidepath Tactical Allocation, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Guidepath(r) Tactical within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.76 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.42 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.01 |
Guidepath(r) Tactical Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Guidepath(r) Tactical for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Guidepath(r) Tactical can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The fund retains 96.95% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities |
Guidepath(r) Tactical Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Guidepath(r) Mutual Fund often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Guidepath(r) Tactical's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Guidepath(r) Tactical's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Guidepath(r) Tactical Technical Analysis
Guidepath(r) Tactical's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Guidepath(r) Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Guidepath Tactical Allocation. In general, you should focus on analyzing Guidepath(r) Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Guidepath(r) Tactical Predictive Forecast Models
Guidepath(r) Tactical's time-series forecasting models is one of many Guidepath(r) Tactical's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Guidepath(r) Tactical's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Guidepath(r) Tactical
Checking the ongoing alerts about Guidepath(r) Tactical for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Guidepath(r) Tactical help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The fund retains 96.95% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities |
Other Information on Investing in Guidepath(r) Mutual Fund
Guidepath(r) Tactical financial ratios help investors to determine whether Guidepath(r) Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Guidepath(r) with respect to the benefits of owning Guidepath(r) Tactical security.
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