Henderson European Focus Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 43.06
| HFECX Fund | USD 43.29 0.23 0.53% |
HENDERSON |
Henderson European Target Price Odds to finish below 43.06
The tendency of HENDERSON Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 43.06 or more in 90 days |
| 43.29 | 90 days | 43.06 | under 4 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Henderson European to drop to $ 43.06 or more in 90 days from now is under 4 (This Henderson European Focus probability density function shows the probability of HENDERSON Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Henderson European Focus price to stay between $ 43.06 and its current price of $43.29 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.74 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Henderson European has a beta of 0.46. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Henderson European average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Henderson European Focus will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Henderson European Focus has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Henderson European Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Henderson European
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Henderson European Focus. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Henderson European's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Henderson European Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Henderson European is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Henderson European's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Henderson European Focus, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Henderson European within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.19 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.46 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.26 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.27 |
Henderson European Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Henderson European for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Henderson European Focus can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Henderson European generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The fund retains 99.06% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities |
Henderson European Technical Analysis
Henderson European's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. HENDERSON Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Henderson European Focus. In general, you should focus on analyzing HENDERSON Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Henderson European Predictive Forecast Models
Henderson European's time-series forecasting models is one of many Henderson European's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Henderson European's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Henderson European Focus
Checking the ongoing alerts about Henderson European for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Henderson European Focus help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Henderson European generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The fund retains 99.06% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities |
Other Information on Investing in HENDERSON Mutual Fund
Henderson European financial ratios help investors to determine whether HENDERSON Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in HENDERSON with respect to the benefits of owning Henderson European security.
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