HEDGE Brasil (Brazil) Probability of Future Fund Price Finishing Under 200.61
| HGBS11 Fund | BRL 193.01 2.00 1.03% |
HEDGE |
HEDGE Brasil Target Price Odds to finish below 200.61
The tendency of HEDGE Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under R$ 200.61 after 90 days |
| 193.01 | 90 days | 200.61 | about 39.37 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of HEDGE Brasil to stay under R$ 200.61 after 90 days from now is about 39.37 (This HEDGE Brasil Shopping probability density function shows the probability of HEDGE Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of HEDGE Brasil Shopping price to stay between its current price of R$ 193.01 and R$ 200.61 at the end of the 90-day period is about 33.31 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon HEDGE Brasil has a beta of 0.12. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, HEDGE Brasil average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding HEDGE Brasil Shopping will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally HEDGE Brasil Shopping has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. HEDGE Brasil Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for HEDGE Brasil
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as HEDGE Brasil Shopping. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.HEDGE Brasil Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. HEDGE Brasil is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the HEDGE Brasil's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold HEDGE Brasil Shopping, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of HEDGE Brasil within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.14 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.12 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 6.03 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.35 |
HEDGE Brasil Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of HEDGE Brasil for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for HEDGE Brasil Shopping can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| HEDGE Brasil generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
HEDGE Brasil Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of HEDGE Fund often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential HEDGE Brasil's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. HEDGE Brasil's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day | 16.79k | |
| Average Daily Volume In Three Month | 8.38k |
HEDGE Brasil Technical Analysis
HEDGE Brasil's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. HEDGE Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of HEDGE Brasil Shopping. In general, you should focus on analyzing HEDGE Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
HEDGE Brasil Predictive Forecast Models
HEDGE Brasil's time-series forecasting models is one of many HEDGE Brasil's fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary HEDGE Brasil's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about HEDGE Brasil Shopping
Checking the ongoing alerts about HEDGE Brasil for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for HEDGE Brasil Shopping help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| HEDGE Brasil generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Other Information on Investing in HEDGE Fund
HEDGE Brasil financial ratios help investors to determine whether HEDGE Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in HEDGE with respect to the benefits of owning HEDGE Brasil security.
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