Hellenic Petroleum (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 6.71
| HLPN Stock | EUR 6.74 0.15 2.28% |
Hellenic |
Hellenic Petroleum Target Price Odds to finish below 6.71
The tendency of Hellenic Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 6.71 or more in 90 days |
| 6.74 | 90 days | 6.71 | about 5.65 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Hellenic Petroleum to drop to € 6.71 or more in 90 days from now is about 5.65 (This Hellenic Petroleum SA probability density function shows the probability of Hellenic Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Hellenic Petroleum price to stay between € 6.71 and its current price of €6.74 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.93 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Hellenic Petroleum has a beta of 0.36. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Hellenic Petroleum average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Hellenic Petroleum SA will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Hellenic Petroleum SA has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Hellenic Petroleum Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Hellenic Petroleum
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hellenic Petroleum. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Hellenic Petroleum Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Hellenic Petroleum is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Hellenic Petroleum's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Hellenic Petroleum SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Hellenic Petroleum within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.15 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.36 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.14 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.17 |
Hellenic Petroleum Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Hellenic Petroleum for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Hellenic Petroleum can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Hellenic Petroleum generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Hellenic Petroleum has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| About 81.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Hellenic Petroleum Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Hellenic Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Hellenic Petroleum's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Hellenic Petroleum's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 305.6 M |
Hellenic Petroleum Technical Analysis
Hellenic Petroleum's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Hellenic Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Hellenic Petroleum SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Hellenic Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Hellenic Petroleum Predictive Forecast Models
Hellenic Petroleum's time-series forecasting models is one of many Hellenic Petroleum's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Hellenic Petroleum's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Hellenic Petroleum
Checking the ongoing alerts about Hellenic Petroleum for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Hellenic Petroleum help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Hellenic Petroleum generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Hellenic Petroleum has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| About 81.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Hellenic Stock
Hellenic Petroleum financial ratios help investors to determine whether Hellenic Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Hellenic with respect to the benefits of owning Hellenic Petroleum security.