Homestreet Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 24.46
| HMST Stock | USD 11.88 0.42 3.66% |
HomeStreet |
HomeStreet Target Price Odds to finish over 24.46
The tendency of HomeStreet Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 24.46 or more in 90 days |
| 11.88 | 90 days | 24.46 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of HomeStreet to move over $ 24.46 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This HomeStreet probability density function shows the probability of HomeStreet Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of HomeStreet price to stay between its current price of $ 11.88 and $ 24.46 at the end of the 90-day period is about 80.53 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.49 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, HomeStreet will likely underperform. Additionally HomeStreet has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. HomeStreet Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for HomeStreet
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as HomeStreet. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of HomeStreet's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
HomeStreet Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. HomeStreet is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the HomeStreet's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold HomeStreet, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of HomeStreet within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.57 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.49 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.08 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.07 |
HomeStreet Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of HomeStreet for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for HomeStreet can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| HomeStreet generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| HomeStreet has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| HomeStreet has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 399.74 M. Net Loss for the year was (27.51 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 290.08 M. | |
| HomeStreet has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 81.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Insider Sell Alert Godfrey Evans Sells Shares of HomeStreet Inc |
HomeStreet Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of HomeStreet Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential HomeStreet's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. HomeStreet's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 18.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 209.3 M |
HomeStreet Technical Analysis
HomeStreet's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. HomeStreet Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of HomeStreet. In general, you should focus on analyzing HomeStreet Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
HomeStreet Predictive Forecast Models
HomeStreet's time-series forecasting models is one of many HomeStreet's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary HomeStreet's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about HomeStreet
Checking the ongoing alerts about HomeStreet for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for HomeStreet help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| HomeStreet generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| HomeStreet has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| HomeStreet has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 399.74 M. Net Loss for the year was (27.51 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 290.08 M. | |
| HomeStreet has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 81.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Insider Sell Alert Godfrey Evans Sells Shares of HomeStreet Inc |
Additional Tools for HomeStreet Stock Analysis
When running HomeStreet's price analysis, check to measure HomeStreet's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy HomeStreet is operating at the current time. Most of HomeStreet's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of HomeStreet's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move HomeStreet's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of HomeStreet to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.