Hallador Energy Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 13.71
| HNRG Stock | USD 13.34 0.43 3.33% |
Hallador |
Hallador Energy Target Price Odds to finish over 13.71
The tendency of Hallador Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 13.71 or more in 90 days |
| 13.34 | 90 days | 13.71 | about 1.54 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Hallador Energy to move over $ 13.71 or more in 90 days from now is about 1.54 (This Hallador Energy probability density function shows the probability of Hallador Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Hallador Energy price to stay between its current price of $ 13.34 and $ 13.71 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.24 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Hallador Energy will likely underperform. Moreover Hallador Energy has an alpha of 1.1, implying that it can generate a 1.1 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Hallador Energy Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Hallador Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hallador Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Hallador Energy Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Hallador Energy is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Hallador Energy's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Hallador Energy, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Hallador Energy within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 1.10 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.24 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.19 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.22 |
Hallador Energy Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Hallador Energy for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Hallador Energy can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Hallador Energy is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Hallador Energy appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Hallador Energy currently holds 119.69 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.7, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Hallador Energy has a current ratio of 0.91, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Hallador Energy's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| About 58.0% of Hallador Energy shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Disposition of 388 shares by Hardie David C of Hallador Energy at 12.9142 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Hallador Energy Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Hallador Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Hallador Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Hallador Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 36.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.8 M |
Hallador Energy Technical Analysis
Hallador Energy's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Hallador Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Hallador Energy. In general, you should focus on analyzing Hallador Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Hallador Energy Predictive Forecast Models
Hallador Energy's time-series forecasting models is one of many Hallador Energy's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Hallador Energy's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Hallador Energy
Checking the ongoing alerts about Hallador Energy for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Hallador Energy help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Hallador Energy is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Hallador Energy appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Hallador Energy currently holds 119.69 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.7, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Hallador Energy has a current ratio of 0.91, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Hallador Energy's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| About 58.0% of Hallador Energy shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Disposition of 388 shares by Hardie David C of Hallador Energy at 12.9142 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Check out Hallador Energy Backtesting, Hallador Energy Valuation, Hallador Energy Correlation, Hallador Energy Hype Analysis, Hallador Energy Volatility, Hallador Energy History as well as Hallador Energy Performance. For more detail on how to invest in Hallador Stock please use our How to Invest in Hallador Energy guide.You can also try the Balance Of Power module to check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios.
Is Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Hallador Energy. If investors know Hallador will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Hallador Energy listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.92) | Earnings Share (0.58) | Revenue Per Share 11.555 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.37) | Return On Assets (0.01) |
The market value of Hallador Energy is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Hallador that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Hallador Energy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Hallador Energy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Hallador Energy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Hallador Energy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Hallador Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Hallador Energy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Hallador Energy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.