Hornby PLC (UK) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 29.65
| HRN Stock | 25.00 3.00 13.64% |
Hornby |
Hornby PLC Target Price Odds to finish over 29.65
The tendency of Hornby Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 29.65 or more in 90 days |
| 25.00 | 90 days | 29.65 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Hornby PLC to move over 29.65 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Hornby PLC probability density function shows the probability of Hornby Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Hornby PLC price to stay between its current price of 25.00 and 29.65 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Hornby PLC has a beta of 0.45. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Hornby PLC average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Hornby PLC will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Hornby PLC has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Hornby PLC Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Hornby PLC
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hornby PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Hornby PLC Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Hornby PLC is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Hornby PLC's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Hornby PLC, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Hornby PLC within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.45 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.35 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.03 |
Hornby PLC Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Hornby PLC for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Hornby PLC can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Hornby PLC had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Hornby PLC has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 56.24 M. Net Loss for the year was (12.06 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 25.72 M. | |
| Hornby PLC generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| Over 82.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Hornby issues jobs warning amid Mike Ashley-led turnaround - Yahoo Finance UK |
Hornby PLC Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Hornby Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Hornby PLC's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Hornby PLC's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 169.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.1 M |
Hornby PLC Technical Analysis
Hornby PLC's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Hornby Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Hornby PLC. In general, you should focus on analyzing Hornby Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Hornby PLC Predictive Forecast Models
Hornby PLC's time-series forecasting models is one of many Hornby PLC's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Hornby PLC's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Hornby PLC
Checking the ongoing alerts about Hornby PLC for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Hornby PLC help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Hornby PLC had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Hornby PLC has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 56.24 M. Net Loss for the year was (12.06 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 25.72 M. | |
| Hornby PLC generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| Over 82.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Hornby issues jobs warning amid Mike Ashley-led turnaround - Yahoo Finance UK |
Other Information on Investing in Hornby Stock
Hornby PLC financial ratios help investors to determine whether Hornby Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Hornby with respect to the benefits of owning Hornby PLC security.