Icl Israel Chemicals Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 2.19
| ICL Stock | USD 4.63 0.01 0.22% |
ICL |
ICL Israel Target Price Odds to finish below 2.19
The tendency of ICL Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 2.19 or more in 90 days |
| 4.63 | 90 days | 2.19 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ICL Israel to drop to $ 2.19 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This ICL Israel Chemicals probability density function shows the probability of ICL Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of ICL Israel Chemicals price to stay between $ 2.19 and its current price of $4.63 at the end of the 90-day period is about 99.0 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon ICL Israel has a beta of 0.54. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, ICL Israel average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding ICL Israel Chemicals will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally ICL Israel Chemicals has an alpha of 0.1204, implying that it can generate a 0.12 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). ICL Israel Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for ICL Israel
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ICL Israel Chemicals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ICL Israel's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
ICL Israel Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ICL Israel is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ICL Israel's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ICL Israel Chemicals, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ICL Israel within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.12 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.54 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.20 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.03 |
ICL Israel Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of ICL Israel for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for ICL Israel Chemicals can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| About 44.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Israel Corp. Reports Results for Third Quarter of 2024 |
ICL Israel Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of ICL Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential ICL Israel's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ICL Israel's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.3 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 592 M |
ICL Israel Technical Analysis
ICL Israel's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ICL Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ICL Israel Chemicals. In general, you should focus on analyzing ICL Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
ICL Israel Predictive Forecast Models
ICL Israel's time-series forecasting models is one of many ICL Israel's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary ICL Israel's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about ICL Israel Chemicals
Checking the ongoing alerts about ICL Israel for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for ICL Israel Chemicals help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| About 44.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Israel Corp. Reports Results for Third Quarter of 2024 |
Check out ICL Israel Backtesting, ICL Israel Valuation, ICL Israel Correlation, ICL Israel Hype Analysis, ICL Israel Volatility, ICL Israel History as well as ICL Israel Performance. You can also try the Analyst Advice module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.
Is Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ICL Israel. If investors know ICL will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ICL Israel listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.18) | Dividend Share 0.2 | Earnings Share 0.31 | Revenue Per Share 5.373 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.06) |
The market value of ICL Israel Chemicals is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ICL that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ICL Israel's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ICL Israel's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ICL Israel's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ICL Israel's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ICL Israel's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ICL Israel is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ICL Israel's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.