Esso (Thailand) (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.12
| JAV2 Stock | EUR 0.20 0.00 0.00% |
Esso |
Esso (Thailand) Target Price Odds to finish below 0.12
The tendency of Esso Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 0.12 or more in 90 days |
| 0.20 | 90 days | 0.12 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Esso (Thailand) to drop to € 0.12 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Esso Public probability density function shows the probability of Esso Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Esso (Thailand) price to stay between € 0.12 and its current price of €0.2 at the end of the 90-day period is about 49.97 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Esso Public has a beta of -0.78. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Esso (Thailand) are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Esso Public is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Esso Public has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Esso (Thailand) Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Esso (Thailand)
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Esso (Thailand). Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Esso (Thailand) Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Esso (Thailand) is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Esso (Thailand)'s value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Esso Public, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Esso (Thailand) within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.15 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.78 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.01 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
Esso (Thailand) Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Esso (Thailand) for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Esso (Thailand) can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Esso (Thailand) generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Esso (Thailand) has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Esso (Thailand) has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Esso Public has accumulated 4.17 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 53.8, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Esso (Thailand) has a current ratio of 0.94, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Esso (Thailand) until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Esso (Thailand)'s shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Esso (Thailand) sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Esso to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Esso (Thailand)'s use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Esso Public has accumulated about 22.2 M in cash with (3.86 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.01. |
Esso (Thailand) Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Esso Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Esso (Thailand)'s investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Esso (Thailand)'s indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 3.5 B |
Esso (Thailand) Technical Analysis
Esso (Thailand)'s future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Esso Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Esso Public. In general, you should focus on analyzing Esso Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Esso (Thailand) Predictive Forecast Models
Esso (Thailand)'s time-series forecasting models is one of many Esso (Thailand)'s stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Esso (Thailand)'s historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Esso (Thailand)
Checking the ongoing alerts about Esso (Thailand) for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Esso (Thailand) help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Esso (Thailand) generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Esso (Thailand) has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Esso (Thailand) has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Esso Public has accumulated 4.17 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 53.8, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Esso (Thailand) has a current ratio of 0.94, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Esso (Thailand) until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Esso (Thailand)'s shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Esso (Thailand) sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Esso to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Esso (Thailand)'s use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Esso Public has accumulated about 22.2 M in cash with (3.86 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.01. |
Other Information on Investing in Esso Stock
Esso (Thailand) financial ratios help investors to determine whether Esso Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Esso with respect to the benefits of owning Esso (Thailand) security.