Karsan Otomotiv (Turkey) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 12.77
| KARSN Stock | TRY 13.07 0.20 1.55% |
Karsan |
Karsan Otomotiv Target Price Odds to finish below 12.77
The tendency of Karsan Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 12.77 or more in 90 days |
| 13.07 | 90 days | 12.77 | about 8.19 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Karsan Otomotiv to drop to 12.77 or more in 90 days from now is about 8.19 (This Karsan Otomotiv Sanayi probability density function shows the probability of Karsan Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Karsan Otomotiv Sanayi price to stay between 12.77 and its current price of 13.07 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.75 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Karsan Otomotiv has a beta of 0.2. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Karsan Otomotiv average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Karsan Otomotiv Sanayi will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Karsan Otomotiv Sanayi has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Karsan Otomotiv Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Karsan Otomotiv
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Karsan Otomotiv Sanayi. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Karsan Otomotiv Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Karsan Otomotiv is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Karsan Otomotiv's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Karsan Otomotiv Sanayi, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Karsan Otomotiv within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.37 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.20 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.85 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.14 |
Karsan Otomotiv Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Karsan Otomotiv for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Karsan Otomotiv Sanayi can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Karsan Otomotiv generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Karsan Otomotiv has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Karsan Otomotiv has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Karsan Otomotiv Sanayi has accumulated 502.57 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 545.1, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Karsan Otomotiv Sanayi has a current ratio of 0.76, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Karsan Otomotiv until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Karsan Otomotiv's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Karsan Otomotiv Sanayi sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Karsan to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Karsan Otomotiv's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 59.0% of Karsan Otomotiv outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Karsan Otomotiv Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Karsan Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Karsan Otomotiv's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Karsan Otomotiv's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 900 M |
Karsan Otomotiv Technical Analysis
Karsan Otomotiv's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Karsan Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Karsan Otomotiv Sanayi. In general, you should focus on analyzing Karsan Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Karsan Otomotiv Predictive Forecast Models
Karsan Otomotiv's time-series forecasting models is one of many Karsan Otomotiv's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Karsan Otomotiv's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Karsan Otomotiv Sanayi
Checking the ongoing alerts about Karsan Otomotiv for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Karsan Otomotiv Sanayi help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Karsan Otomotiv generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Karsan Otomotiv has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Karsan Otomotiv has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Karsan Otomotiv Sanayi has accumulated 502.57 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 545.1, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Karsan Otomotiv Sanayi has a current ratio of 0.76, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Karsan Otomotiv until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Karsan Otomotiv's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Karsan Otomotiv Sanayi sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Karsan to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Karsan Otomotiv's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 59.0% of Karsan Otomotiv outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Karsan Stock
Karsan Otomotiv financial ratios help investors to determine whether Karsan Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Karsan with respect to the benefits of owning Karsan Otomotiv security.