First Media (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 96.80
| KBLV Stock | IDR 100.00 1.00 0.99% |
First |
First Media Target Price Odds to finish below 96.80
The tendency of First Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 96.80 or more in 90 days |
| 100.00 | 90 days | 96.80 | about 92.79 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of First Media to drop to 96.80 or more in 90 days from now is about 92.79 (This First Media Tbk probability density function shows the probability of First Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of First Media Tbk price to stay between 96.80 and its current price of 100.0 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.02 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon First Media Tbk has a beta of -0.66. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding First Media are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, First Media Tbk is likely to outperform the market. Moreover First Media Tbk has an alpha of 1.4657, implying that it can generate a 1.47 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). First Media Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for First Media
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Media Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.First Media Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. First Media is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the First Media's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold First Media Tbk, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of First Media within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 1.47 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.66 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 19.16 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.40 |
First Media Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of First Media for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for First Media Tbk can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| First Media Tbk appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| First is showing solid risk-adjusted performance over 90 days | |
| The company reported the revenue of 151.8 B. Net Loss for the year was (1.39 T) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 61.71 B. | |
| First Media generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| About 67.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
First Media Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of First Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential First Media's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. First Media's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.7 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 106.8 B |
First Media Technical Analysis
First Media's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. First Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of First Media Tbk. In general, you should focus on analyzing First Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
First Media Predictive Forecast Models
First Media's time-series forecasting models is one of many First Media's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary First Media's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about First Media Tbk
Checking the ongoing alerts about First Media for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for First Media Tbk help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| First Media Tbk appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| First is showing solid risk-adjusted performance over 90 days | |
| The company reported the revenue of 151.8 B. Net Loss for the year was (1.39 T) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 61.71 B. | |
| First Media generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| About 67.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Other Information on Investing in First Stock
First Media financial ratios help investors to determine whether First Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in First with respect to the benefits of owning First Media security.