First Media Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

A naive forecasting model for First Media is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of First Media Tbk value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

First Media Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of First Media Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 87.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.32, mean absolute percentage error of 9.65, and the sum of the absolute errors of 141.27.

First Media Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest First Media

First Media Price Prediction

Buy or Sell Advice

First Media Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First Media stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First Media stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of First Media Tbk. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict First Media. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for First Media

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Media Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 96.74 100.00 103.26 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 83.99 87.25 110.00 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 98.15 100.00 101.85 Details

Other Forecasting Options for First Media

For every potential investor in First, whether a beginner or expert, First Media's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. First Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in First. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying First Media's price trends.

First Media Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

First Media Tbk Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of First Media's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of First Media's current price.

First Media Market Strength Events

First Media Risk Indicators

Other Information on Investing in First Stock