Kruk SA (Poland) Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 414.14

KRU Stock   421.00  1.00  0.24%   
Kruk SA's future price is the expected price of Kruk SA instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Kruk SA performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Kruk SA Backtesting, Kruk SA Valuation, Kruk SA Correlation, Kruk SA Hype Analysis, Kruk SA Volatility, Kruk SA History as well as Kruk SA Performance.
  
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Kruk SA Target Price Odds to finish below 414.14

The tendency of Kruk Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to  414.14  or more in 90 days
 421.00 90 days 414.14 
about 5.15
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Kruk SA to drop to  414.14  or more in 90 days from now is about 5.15 (This Kruk SA probability density function shows the probability of Kruk Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Kruk SA price to stay between  414.14  and its current price of 421.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 13.37 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Kruk SA has a beta of 0.0041. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Kruk SA average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Kruk SA will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Kruk SA has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Kruk SA Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Kruk SA

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Kruk SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Kruk SA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
419.55421.00422.45
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
364.61366.06463.10
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
406.36407.81409.26
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
406.43423.24440.06
Details

Kruk SA Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Kruk SA is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Kruk SA's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Kruk SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Kruk SA within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.04
β
Beta against Dow Jones0
σ
Overall volatility
9.43
Ir
Information ratio -0.1

Kruk SA Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Kruk SA for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Kruk SA can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Kruk SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Kruk SA generates negative cash flow from operations

Kruk SA Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Kruk Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Kruk SA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Kruk SA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding19.4 M
Cash And Short Term InvestmentsB

Kruk SA Technical Analysis

Kruk SA's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Kruk Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Kruk SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Kruk Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Kruk SA Predictive Forecast Models

Kruk SA's time-series forecasting models is one of many Kruk SA's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Kruk SA's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Kruk SA

Checking the ongoing alerts about Kruk SA for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Kruk SA help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Kruk SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Kruk SA generates negative cash flow from operations

Additional Tools for Kruk Stock Analysis

When running Kruk SA's price analysis, check to measure Kruk SA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Kruk SA is operating at the current time. Most of Kruk SA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Kruk SA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Kruk SA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Kruk SA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.