LGI Homes (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 106.04
| LG1 Stock | EUR 106.00 8.00 8.16% |
LGI |
LGI Homes Target Price Odds to finish over 106.04
The tendency of LGI Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over € 106.04 or more in 90 days |
| 106.00 | 90 days | 106.04 | about 6.21 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of LGI Homes to move over € 106.04 or more in 90 days from now is about 6.21 (This LGI Homes probability density function shows the probability of LGI Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of LGI Homes price to stay between its current price of € 106.00 and € 106.04 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon LGI Homes has a beta of 0.96. This indicates LGI Homes market returns are reactive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, LGI Homes is expected to follow. Additionally LGI Homes has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. LGI Homes Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for LGI Homes
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as LGI Homes. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.LGI Homes Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. LGI Homes is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the LGI Homes' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold LGI Homes, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of LGI Homes within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.08 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.96 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.39 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.03 |
LGI Homes Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of LGI Homes for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for LGI Homes can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| LGI Homes has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| LGI Homes has accumulated about 35.08 M in cash with (370.45 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.53. | |
| Over 96.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
LGI Homes Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of LGI Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential LGI Homes' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. LGI Homes' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 23.3 M | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 141.8 M |
LGI Homes Technical Analysis
LGI Homes' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. LGI Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of LGI Homes. In general, you should focus on analyzing LGI Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
LGI Homes Predictive Forecast Models
LGI Homes' time-series forecasting models is one of many LGI Homes' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary LGI Homes' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about LGI Homes
Checking the ongoing alerts about LGI Homes for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for LGI Homes help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| LGI Homes has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| LGI Homes has accumulated about 35.08 M in cash with (370.45 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.53. | |
| Over 96.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in LGI Stock
When determining whether LGI Homes offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of LGI Homes' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Lgi Homes Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Lgi Homes Stock:Check out LGI Homes Backtesting, LGI Homes Valuation, LGI Homes Correlation, LGI Homes Hype Analysis, LGI Homes Volatility, LGI Homes History as well as LGI Homes Performance. For more detail on how to invest in LGI Stock please use our How to Invest in LGI Homes guide.You can also try the Stock Screener module to find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook..