Lowes Companies (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 51.44
| LOWC34 Stock | BRL 76.76 0.44 0.57% |
Lowes |
Lowes Companies Target Price Odds to finish below 51.44
The tendency of Lowes Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to R$ 51.44 or more in 90 days |
| 76.76 | 90 days | 51.44 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Lowes Companies to drop to R$ 51.44 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Lowes Companies probability density function shows the probability of Lowes Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Lowes Companies price to stay between R$ 51.44 and its current price of R$76.76 at the end of the 90-day period is about 80.09 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Lowes Companies has a beta of -0.0318. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Lowes Companies are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Lowes Companies is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Lowes Companies has an alpha of 0.2334, implying that it can generate a 0.23 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Lowes Companies Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Lowes Companies
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lowes Companies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Lowes Companies Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Lowes Companies is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Lowes Companies' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Lowes Companies, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Lowes Companies within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.23 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.03 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.08 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.08 |
Lowes Companies Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Lowes Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Lowes Companies' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Lowes Companies' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 673.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.1 B |
Lowes Companies Technical Analysis
Lowes Companies' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Lowes Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Lowes Companies. In general, you should focus on analyzing Lowes Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Lowes Companies Predictive Forecast Models
Lowes Companies' time-series forecasting models is one of many Lowes Companies' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Lowes Companies' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Lowes Companies in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Lowes Companies' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Lowes Companies options trading.
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Lowes Stock
When determining whether Lowes Companies is a strong investment it is important to analyze Lowes Companies' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Lowes Companies' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Lowes Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Lowes Companies Backtesting, Lowes Companies Valuation, Lowes Companies Correlation, Lowes Companies Hype Analysis, Lowes Companies Volatility, Lowes Companies History as well as Lowes Companies Performance. For information on how to trade Lowes Stock refer to our How to Trade Lowes Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.