Meli Hotels (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 7.11
| MEL Stock | EUR 6.88 0.02 0.29% |
Meli |
Meli Hotels Target Price Odds to finish below 7.11
The tendency of Meli Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under € 7.11 after 90 days |
| 6.88 | 90 days | 7.11 | roughly 96.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Meli Hotels to stay under € 7.11 after 90 days from now is roughly 96.0 (This Meli Hotels International probability density function shows the probability of Meli Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Meli Hotels International price to stay between its current price of € 6.88 and € 7.11 at the end of the 90-day period is about 16.12 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Meli Hotels has a beta of 0.2. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Meli Hotels average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Meli Hotels International will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Meli Hotels International has an alpha of 0.0919, implying that it can generate a 0.0919 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Meli Hotels Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Meli Hotels
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Meli Hotels International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Meli Hotels Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Meli Hotels is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Meli Hotels' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Meli Hotels International, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Meli Hotels within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.09 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.20 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.25 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.0031 |
Meli Hotels Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Meli Hotels for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Meli Hotels International can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Meli Hotels has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Meli Hotels International has accumulated 1.18 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 8.02, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Meli Hotels International has a current ratio of 0.43, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Meli Hotels until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Meli Hotels' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Meli Hotels International sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Meli to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Meli Hotels' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the revenue of 827.21 M. Net Loss for the year was (192.9 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 349.93 M. | |
| About 55.0% of Meli Hotels outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Meli Hotels Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Meli Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Meli Hotels' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Meli Hotels' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 220.1 M |
Meli Hotels Technical Analysis
Meli Hotels' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Meli Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Meli Hotels International. In general, you should focus on analyzing Meli Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Meli Hotels Predictive Forecast Models
Meli Hotels' time-series forecasting models is one of many Meli Hotels' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Meli Hotels' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Meli Hotels International
Checking the ongoing alerts about Meli Hotels for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Meli Hotels International help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Meli Hotels has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Meli Hotels International has accumulated 1.18 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 8.02, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Meli Hotels International has a current ratio of 0.43, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Meli Hotels until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Meli Hotels' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Meli Hotels International sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Meli to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Meli Hotels' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the revenue of 827.21 M. Net Loss for the year was (192.9 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 349.93 M. | |
| About 55.0% of Meli Hotels outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Meli Stock
Meli Hotels financial ratios help investors to determine whether Meli Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Meli with respect to the benefits of owning Meli Hotels security.