MercadoLibre (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 84.5
| MELI34 Stock | BRL 100.71 4.24 4.40% |
MercadoLibre |
MercadoLibre Target Price Odds to finish below 84.5
The tendency of MercadoLibre Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to R$ 84.50 or more in 90 days |
| 100.71 | 90 days | 84.50 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of MercadoLibre to drop to R$ 84.50 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This MercadoLibre probability density function shows the probability of MercadoLibre Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of MercadoLibre price to stay between R$ 84.50 and its current price of R$100.71 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 97.0 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon MercadoLibre has a beta of 0.54. This indicates as returns on the market go up, MercadoLibre average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding MercadoLibre will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally MercadoLibre has an alpha of 0.0393, implying that it can generate a 0.0393 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). MercadoLibre Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for MercadoLibre
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MercadoLibre. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.MercadoLibre Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. MercadoLibre is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the MercadoLibre's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold MercadoLibre, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of MercadoLibre within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.54 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.23 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.0062 |
MercadoLibre Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of MercadoLibre Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential MercadoLibre's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. MercadoLibre's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 49.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3.4 B |
MercadoLibre Technical Analysis
MercadoLibre's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. MercadoLibre Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of MercadoLibre. In general, you should focus on analyzing MercadoLibre Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
MercadoLibre Predictive Forecast Models
MercadoLibre's time-series forecasting models is one of many MercadoLibre's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary MercadoLibre's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards MercadoLibre in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, MercadoLibre's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from MercadoLibre options trading.
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in MercadoLibre Stock
When determining whether MercadoLibre offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of MercadoLibre's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Mercadolibre Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Mercadolibre Stock:Check out MercadoLibre Backtesting, MercadoLibre Valuation, MercadoLibre Correlation, MercadoLibre Hype Analysis, MercadoLibre Volatility, MercadoLibre History as well as MercadoLibre Performance. For information on how to trade MercadoLibre Stock refer to our How to Trade MercadoLibre Stock guide.You can also try the Insider Screener module to find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance.