MercadoLibre (Mexico) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 44,567

MELIN Stock  MXN 42,010  990.01  2.30%   
MercadoLibre's future price is the expected price of MercadoLibre instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of MercadoLibre performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out MercadoLibre Backtesting, MercadoLibre Valuation, MercadoLibre Correlation, MercadoLibre Hype Analysis, MercadoLibre Volatility, MercadoLibre History as well as MercadoLibre Performance.
To learn how to invest in MercadoLibre Stock, please use our How to Invest in MercadoLibre guide.
  
Please specify MercadoLibre's target price for which you would like MercadoLibre odds to be computed.

MercadoLibre Target Price Odds to finish below 44,567

The tendency of MercadoLibre Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move below current price in 90 days
 42,010 90 days 42,010 
about 90.48
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of MercadoLibre to move below current price in 90 days from now is about 90.48 (This MercadoLibre probability density function shows the probability of MercadoLibre Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon MercadoLibre has a beta of 0.28. This indicates as returns on the market go up, MercadoLibre average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding MercadoLibre will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally MercadoLibre has an alpha of 0.1643, implying that it can generate a 0.16 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   MercadoLibre Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for MercadoLibre

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MercadoLibre. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
42,00742,01042,013
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
34,05334,05646,211
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
44,78144,78444,787
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
35,61739,70843,799
Details

MercadoLibre Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. MercadoLibre is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the MercadoLibre's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold MercadoLibre, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of MercadoLibre within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.16
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.28
σ
Overall volatility
1,406
Ir
Information ratio 0.03

MercadoLibre Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of MercadoLibre for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for MercadoLibre can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
MercadoLibre had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
Over 87.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors

MercadoLibre Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of MercadoLibre Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential MercadoLibre's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. MercadoLibre's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding49.7 M

MercadoLibre Technical Analysis

MercadoLibre's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. MercadoLibre Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of MercadoLibre. In general, you should focus on analyzing MercadoLibre Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

MercadoLibre Predictive Forecast Models

MercadoLibre's time-series forecasting models is one of many MercadoLibre's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary MercadoLibre's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about MercadoLibre

Checking the ongoing alerts about MercadoLibre for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for MercadoLibre help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
MercadoLibre had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
Over 87.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in MercadoLibre Stock

When determining whether MercadoLibre offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of MercadoLibre's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Mercadolibre Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Mercadolibre Stock:
Check out MercadoLibre Backtesting, MercadoLibre Valuation, MercadoLibre Correlation, MercadoLibre Hype Analysis, MercadoLibre Volatility, MercadoLibre History as well as MercadoLibre Performance.
To learn how to invest in MercadoLibre Stock, please use our How to Invest in MercadoLibre guide.
You can also try the Idea Analyzer module to analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas.
Please note, there is a significant difference between MercadoLibre's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if MercadoLibre is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, MercadoLibre's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.